I have a book from a local Colorado University author, The Essential Exponential: For the Future of Our Planet, Albert A. Bartlett. It's an eye opening book for many reasons.
At the same time I came across an interesting web site - CostOfWar. It has one of those running clocks that shows insane numbers of the cost - in this case - of war.
Ignoring the politics of the current situation, the numbers are huge - $966B. That's cumulative since 2001. And by the way, I'm a Vietnam Combat Vet, when war was much cheaper, and many more died on the battlefield. Vietnam cost $686B inflation adjusted, with 58,195 KIA and 350K WIA. The current conflicts are cheap at twice the price when measures Dollars / Deaths for the American Solider. I'm being cynical for anyone not understanding the mind of a Vietnam Vet.
The point here is that exponential series have interesting behaviors. The number $966B would be considered BIG in any normal sense of the term. But there are other units of measure that can be used.
- Cost per household - $8,603 (cumulative since 2001)
- Cost per person - $3,286 (cumulative since 2001)
- Cost per tax payer - $7,250 (cumulative since 2001)
So making some simplifying assumptions (like all good statistical assessments, let's aggregate the numbers to hide the variances, as directed in How To Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff). Anyway, let's look at annualized (smooth spreads) of these numbers.
- Cost per household per year - $860
- Cost per person per year - $328
- Cost per tax payer per year - $725
I know people that spend $750 a year on Starbucks Vente Latte's - I'm one of them, between me, my wife and college kids.
All of this is to make a point - the use of numbers, either percentages, aggregated roll ups, massive scale numbers - debt, war, stimulus, barrels of oil consumed all need to "calibrated" in some way before the conversation can continue.
On the natural resources side - the topic of Bartlett's book - the finite availability is an issue. On the money side, replacement is possible. In projects time is the only non-renewable resource. If you're over budget, you can probably get some more money. If you're short of resources, you can probably "buy" some more.
But when you're out of time, you're out of time - you're late.
So where does this little diversion end for the project manager
Schedule is King
