If we don't remember those who have died, they died for nothing
From 1775 to Present - 2,852,901
Principles, Processes, and Practices to Increase Probability of Project Success
« April 2016 | Main | June 2016 »
If we don't remember those who have died, they died for nothing
From 1775 to Present - 2,852,901
Posted at 08:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
The basis of #Noestimates is that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without having to estimate the impact of those decisions
Here's a research paper that hopefully will put an end to the nonsensical idea of #NoEstimates.
All project work is uncertain. And has been stated here endless times, uncertainty comes in two forms - Reducible (Epistemic) and Irreducible (Aleatory).
Add to that the biases found on all projects - confirmation and optimism are two we encounter all the time. The conjecture - and it is pure conjecture- that decisions can be made when spending other people's money in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the consequences of those decisions is not only conjecture, it's factually false - a Fallacy.
Here's the paper at SSRN. You'll need to create a free account. This version is the pre-publication version, but it's the same paper I downloaded from my account. Read the paper, discover how to reject the notion of #NoEstimates, not only by its ignorance of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, business governance violations, but foundational mathematics.
So time to learn why estimates are needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertanty, how to make those estimates, and start behaving as adults in the presence of the risk created by this uncertainty as Tim Lister tells us Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects.
Posted at 06:01 PM in #NoEstimates | Permalink | Comments (1)
Here's a straightforward approach to estimating on agile projects. This is an example of the estimating profession found on many domains.
Posted at 08:38 PM in #NoEstimates, Estimating | Permalink | Comments (0)
Uncertainty is all around us. In the project world, uncertanty comes in two forms:
When we hear you can make decisions without estimates, this is physically not possible if you accept the fundamental principle that uncertanty is present on all projects. If there is no uncertanty - no aleatory or epistemic uncertainties - then there will be no probabilistic or statistical processes driving the project's outcomes. If that is the case, then decision have no probabilistic or statistical impact and whatever decision you make with the information you have is Deterministic.
So if you want to learn how and why estimating is needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty start here:
And then when you hear about a conjecture that decisions can be made without estimating you'll know better, and consider anyone making that conjecture as uninformed about how probabilistic and stochastic processes in the project world actually work - especially when spending other people's money.
Posted at 04:28 PM in #NoEstimates | Permalink | Comments (0)
Wise men profit more from fools than fools from wise men; for the wise men shun the mistakes of fools, but fool do not imitate the success of the wise - Cato the Elder
Any conjecture not based on testable principles, independent of personal opinion or anecdotes cannot stand up to the questioning of the wise.
Posted at 09:47 AM in Quotes | Permalink | Comments (0)
Estimating is part of all decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Accuracy and precision are two primary attributes of all estimates.
We all know estimates are hard. But there are lots of hard things in the development of enterprise software. We wouldn't be whining about how hard it is to construct a good First Normal Form database schema, or bullet proof our cyber security front end from attack by the Chinese would we.
So why is estimating a topic that seems to be the whipping boy for software developers these days?
My first inclination is that estimating is not taught very well in the software arts. In engineering schools it is. Estimating is part of all engineering disciplines. One undergraduate and one graduate degree is in physics. Estimating is at the very heart of that discipline. A second graduate degree is in Systems Management - which is a combination of Systems Engineering and Managerial Finance - how to manage the technical processes of engineering programs with the principles of managerial finance, contract law, and probabilistic decision making.
This book comes with a spreadsheet for making the needed estimates to increase the probability of project success. It opens with an important quote that should be a poster on the wall of any shop spending other people's money
For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost, whether he have sufficient to finish it? Lest haply, after he hath laid the foundation, and is not able to finish it, all the behold it begin to mock him, saying, This man began to build, and was not able to finish - Luke 14:28-30
Posted at 09:42 PM in #NoEstimates, Books, Estimating | Permalink | Comments (0)
The on-going discussions that Decisions can be made in the absence of estimates reminds me of this concept.
The conjecture that we can manage in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts of our decisions, willfully ignores uncertainties in the present and future that will impact our outcomes, the external governance frameworks of managerial finance, probability and statistics of the processes under management, and regular governance processes and the decision rights of those governance frameworks.
Those decision rights by the way belong to those paying, rarely to those spending. So the decision to estimate or not estimate rarely belongs to the developers spending the business's money.
When the claim that #Noestimates critics say we're simply not being Opened Minded those advocates want us to accept that everything can be challenged, without any basis for that conjecture. If that were the case, those proforring #Noestimates fit right into those believing the pseudoscience of spending other people's money in the presence of uncertanty.
Thanks to Peter Kretzman for the link to the video.
Posted at 02:25 PM in #NoEstimates | Permalink | Comments (0)
"It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision that the nature of the subject admits, and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible." Aristotle
Posted at 07:05 PM in Quotes | Permalink | Comments (0)
Do not deny the classical approach, simply as a reaction, or you will have created another pattern and trapped yourself there.
— Bruce Lee
Any new innovative or revolutionary suggestion in the software development world, needs to be anchored on the established principles of how to manage the spend of other people's money. If it's your own money, spend as you please - no one cares.
But if you're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money, those providing the money likely have a fiduciary obligation to know something to some level of confidence how much it will cost, when it will be done, and what they'll get for that that cost and time.
To suggest otherwise without a foundation of principles by which this new and innovative idea can be tested is selling snake oil to the uninformed. That approach has worked since the dawn of time - I have the solution to your unnamed ailment, just try this magic elixir and all will be better.
Posted at 10:32 AM in #NoEstimates, Quotes | Permalink | Comments (2)
A primary learning process is research. This process is part of all science, engineering, management processes. Here's a starting point for learning how to estimate in the presence of uncertainty on agile projects.
This is the start of a literature search. Anyone making suggestions about making decisions in the presence uncertainty on agile project can start here for establishing the basis of any arguments of how and why that suggestion (conjecture possibly) is based on some set of principles. Not just anecdotal opinion.
Posted at 09:30 AM in #NoEstimates, Agile, Estimating | Permalink | Comments (0)
The conjecture of #NoEstimates starts with the first Tweet
This conjectures - (there are) ... ways to make decisions with No Estimates ... is not founded on any principle of business management, microeconomics of decision making, or principles of probability and statistics. It's a fallacy.
Let's start with a simple approach to exploring for anything?
The Hypothesis might well be (if there was one) is ... can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision?
Let's put aside for the moment the missing principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, microeconomics of decision making, Real Options, Bayesian decision networks, and other decision making processes used in modern business when spending other people's money. And ask a simple question...
What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions?
The Myths of No Estimates and the busting of them is one purpose of this blog post. Here are some books and papers that can provide you with all the tools needed to learn to estimate in the presence of uncertainty. As well these books and papers can show you the snake oil salesman's fallacy that estimates are hard, are a waste, and aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty.
Reading Materials
Before listening to any conjecture that estimates aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of Uncertainty for software development, please read these books. Ask the person making those conjectures if they have read the books. Ask to see the marked up, sticky noted, tabbed copy of the book and the notes they made from the content. If not, walk away. They are not informed by the principles of spending other people's money.
Along with these books here's a collection of papers and articles showing how to estimate on agile development projects and how to avoid the Snake Oil Sales Pitch of #NoEstimates
So stop listening to the fallacy that estimates aren't needed to make decisions. And start learning to estimate and be a proper steward of your customers money.
Related articles
Posted at 08:58 AM in #NoEstimates, Agile, Debunking, Estimating | Permalink | Comments (0)
Predictions are always difficult - especially about the future ― Niels Bohr
― Neandertal's Guide to Cost Estimating, Naval Aviation Systems
This is a quote often used by those conjecturing that estimating is a waste. The quote is true of course. Making predictions about the future is difficult. But that has nothing to do with the need for predictions and the estimates that support them. When making decisions in the presence of uncertainty about some outcome in the future - this is the basis of Microeconomics of decision making.
Posted at 07:03 AM in #NoEstimates, Estimating, Quotes | Permalink | Comments (0)
Guess: a conjecture based on little or no evidence
Estimate: a guess made by an expert
― Neandertal's Guide to Cost Estimating, Naval Aviation Systems
All project work is based on probabilities driven by statistical processes. All decisions made on projects for time, cost, and technical performance involve making decision in the presence of uncertanty. To attempt to make those decisions in the absence of estimating the impact of the decisions is foolhardy at best and doomed to failure at worst.
Posted at 08:51 AM in #NoEstimates, Estimating | Permalink | Comments (0)
All successful projects adhere to these five immutable principles during the lifecycle of the design, development, deployment, and operation. These principles are independent of any project or program domain or context in that domain. They are also independent of any project management method or product development method, including agile.
They ask five questions that must have credible answers that establish the foundation for success. Without credible answers to these 5 questions, the project has little hope of success.
This paper is the basis of the book, Performance-Based Project Management. and a review from Max Wideman
So if you hear some unsubstantiated conjecture like ... decisions can be made without estimating ask how any or all of the 5 immutable principles can be met?
Posted at 08:34 AM in #NoEstimates, Decision Making, Estimating, Governance, Management, Performance-Based Project Management®, Principles, Project Management | Permalink | Comments (0)
Recent Comments