Sitting in our seats at last night's Rockie v. Phillies game and dawned on me the analogy between Moneyball strategy and good management of software development. In Moneyball, Billy Beane was faced with a limited budget for players. He hired a statistics guy and they figured out the getting on base was just as important as hitting a homerun and a hell of alot cheaper.
Last night there were a few home runs. But most of the action were singles and a few doubles. If you do the simple minded math, when the rotation all get singles with batting averages of 0.303, then there'll be runs scored every inning. 4 singles equals a home run. Getting on base is the key to winning games.
Getting incrementally more software out the door - assuming it's the right software needed by the customer and that customer can put the software to work - then progress toward the win is being made.
So the Strawman of Waterfall and Big Bang is just that a Strawman. The Straw Man of No Projects is also nonsense, along with No estimates. The manager of the Rockies has a plan in the presence of uncertanty and emerging situations. That's why he's called the MANAGER because he manages in the presence of uncertainty. And in doing that job he makes estimates on the probability of success of the emerging play options.
We can learn a lot from Baseball about managing projects. First get on base. You can't score unless you're on base. First, Second, Third, then Home. You can't count on hitting Home Runs to win the game. It doesn't work that way. Offense of good, but so is defense. Managing the risks is defense. Defense in baseball is more than just putting players on the field. It's how those players react when the ball is hit. Go for the out at first? Try for a double play? Hold the ball after a single bounce in the outfield?
While baseball is not a contact sport, it still requires teamwork. I played competitive Volleyball in College - the ultimate Team Sport, since you're only as strong as the weakest player. Much like the software development team. But all teams have a strategy, a game play that changes as the game emerges and most of all - as Peter Kretzman has lambasted some NE advocates who have not likely ever played baseball - all the players are making estimates all the time in order to catch the ball, keep control of the ball and the emerging situation of the game.