*As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.*

— Albert Einstein Sherwin, Ronald Paul (2014-08-17). In *The Tao of Systems Engineering: An Engineer's Survival Guide* (pp. 195-197). Ronald Paul Sherwin. Kindle Edition.

When ever you hear that we can't predict the future. Think again. We can always predict the future. The level of confidence of that future is what is in question.

When you hear estimating is *guessing. *Think again. That person doesn't understand probability and statistics. When you hear we don't need to predict to make decisions, that person has very little at risk from that decision, since making decisions in the absence of knowing the possible loss ignores the principles of microeconomics of everyday life.

When ever you hear we don't need to estimate the outcomes of our decisions. Think again. We don't need to estimate those outcomes only if they are of low enough value that we don't care about the consequences of not knowing to some level of confidence what happens as a result of our decision. We're willing to wright off our loss if we're wrong.

When we hear any conjecture that involves mathematics that does not address the foundation of the mathematical principles of that discussion, remember Einstein, and also remember how to apply that advice in the specific domain and context of the question guided by Deming.

**Management is Prediction **

Since management is prediction, knowing how to make predictions using statistical methods to produce a confidence interval about the probabilistic outcomes of those business decisions is part of management. When we want a sit at the table where management decisions are being made, knowing this and being able to add value to the decision process is the price of entry to that room. Otherwise we're labor sitting outside the room waiting for the decisions to be made.

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