"An important source of bad decisions is illusions of certainty"
- Kenneth Boulding, The Value of Uncertainty
Technical Risk Sources†
- Requirement Definition and Dissemination
- Design Maturity, Complexity, and Technology Readiness
- Verification and Validation Complexity
- Implementation and Application Compatibility
- Use of “Heritage” Design/Hardware
- Interface Definition and Control
- Design for Testability, Compatibility, Survivability, and Deployability
Programmatic Risk Sources
- Integrated vs. Distributed Organization
- Consolidated vs. Matrix Responsibility
- Support Services Rigor (CM, Data Management, QA, Safety, etc.)
- Agreements and Contracting Methods
- Proactive vs. Reactive
- Problem and Failure Communication and Reporting
Schedule Risk Sources
- Conservative vs. Aggressive Scheduling
- Critical Paths and Milestone Constraints
- Technical and Cost Risk Sensitivity and Flexibility
- Schedule Margins and Reserves
- Lead Times
- Integration and Testing Flow and Coordination
- Estimate Validation and Correction
- Delay and Slip Communication/Reporting
- Constraints and Alternative Paths
Cost and Budget Risk Sources
- Funding and Budget Phasing
- Estimate Validation and Correction
- Technical and Schedule Risk Sensitivity and Flexibility
- Budget Margins and Reserves
- Human Resources (Skill, Knowledge, Experience, Availability, etc.)
- Facilities and Test Equipment Availability and Cost
- Shipment and Delivery Methods/Constraints
