Mike Clayton pointed me to a post on the The Psychology of Risk. The book in his post Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, looks like the next reading assignment after our book club finishes Against The Gods.
Mike's post lists four biases for developed by Tversky, Kahnemann, and Slovic.
This book, Mike's post, and the materials in the previous post on Sources of Estimating Error, should put an end to the naive and simple minded approach to gathering estimates on projects.
Please, please, please do not apply three point estimates to anything without first having read the materials referenced here and the Tversky and Kahnemann materials. You will simply be setting the stage for disappointment all around.
