The discussion on risk, certainty, uncertainty, and variability on projects has many starting point. Some make claims that certainty is not possible. Others than chaos is all there is.
But the concept of Uncertainty is core to all project activies.
Uncertainty in plain English is about the “lack of certainty:”
- Uncertainty is about the “variability” in the performance measures like cost, duration, or quality.
- Uncertainty is about the “ambiguity” associated with a lack of this clarity.
Discovering the known and unknown sources of bias and ignorance helps define much effort it is worth to clarify the uncertaint:
- This is the underlying process driving uncertainty.
As well, uncertainty arises from the basic processes of work
- This is Deming uncertainty.
- It is the statistical “noise” built into the work process.
Both of these sources of uncertainty impact cost and schedule
- Trying to control the “noise” adds little value.
- Trying to control the “lack of certainty” arising from ambiguity and lack of clarity does have value.
