Again and again and again — what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what "the stars foretell," avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable "verdict of history" — what are the facts, and to how many decimal places?
You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue.
Get the facts! - Robert Heinlein (1978)
Thanks to Matthew Squair's Blog, for this reminder.
The very notion that "things happen we can't forecast," is a simple statement that we're simply too lazy to go looking for risk. And then we're simply too lazy to build a fault tolerant plan with a Plan-B when the unknown does happen.