Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

It's a good principle that when people don't want to tell you when they will get something finished, or how much it will cost, it is not because they are worried that the good news will pitch you into a... Read more →

Quote of the Day

I took a course in speed reading, and read War and Peace in 20 minutes. It's about Russia - Woody Allen When we hear about EV lite, "simple steps to project success," and "How to save the world, in 87... Read more →

Making Forecasts About Cost or Schedule

Bayesian: being, relating to, or involving statistical methods that assign probabilities or distributions to events (as rain tomorrow) or parameters (as a population mean) based on experience or best guesses before experimentation and data collection and that apply Bayes' theorem... Read more →

Principles First, Then Practice

Principles that are established should be viewed as flexible, capable of adaptation to every need. It is the manager’s job to know how to make use of them, which is a difficult art requiring intelligence, experience, decisiveness and, most important,... Read more →

Uncertainty is the Source of Risk

No risk exists alone, it is the uncertainty of an unfavorable outcome that creates risk Aleatory Uncertainty produces Aleatory Risk. Epistemic Uncertainty produces Epistemic Risk. Iin both cases it is the UNCERTAINTY that is the source of the Risk. Risks... Read more →

Measurement of Uncertainty

When we talk about measuring things in project management, there are four types of outcomes for two attributes of that measurement. The measurement can be accurate and the measurement can be precision. We want it to be both. But without... Read more →

System of Systems and Emergent Behaviour

In the agile domain, many times there is a discussion of emergent behaviour without actually explaining how this behaviour takes place or the source of the emergence. In our domain, System of System is common. These SoS's have several attributes,... Read more →

Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates

There is a popular notion that project and program overruns come from some core unprofessional behaviour of those involved in constructing the estimate. That there is some basic malfeasance afoot in the cost and schedule business. This conjecture usually comes... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Of all the tasks which are set before man in life, the education and management of his character is the most important, and, in order that it should be successfully pursued, it is necessary that he should make a calm... Read more →

Credible Estimating Processes

Lynda Bourne has a nice post titled Prediction is Difficult. In the end she speaks about the human failings of predicting and the difficulties of getting senior management is accept these predictions. First I'd like to suggest a change from... Read more →

Quote of the Day

It's dificult to work in a group when you're omnipotent - Q to Jordy, Star Treck Read more →

Quote of the Day

"However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results." ~ Churchill This is the role of measures of effectiveness and measures of performance. Measures of Effectiveness - The operational measures of success that are related to the achievements... Read more →

Risk Management

It is moronic to predict without first establishing an error rate for the prediction and keeping track of one’s past record of accuracy — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled By Randomness The naturally occurring uncertainties (Aleatory) in cost and schedule create... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The highest form of ignorance is to reject something you know nothing about. ~ Dr. Wayne W. Dyer Read more →