There is this notion in some circles that trust trumps all business management processes.
Most in favor of #NoEstimates trust that people can think for themselves and decide it if applies to them. The critics, not so much
The Russian proverb is
"Доверяй, но проверяй, Лучше перебдеть, чем недобдеть"
Who's butchered translation is Trust but Verify, don't rely on chance?
President Regan used that proverb reflected back to the Russian in the SALT I treaty. So what does it mean trust that people can think for themselves and decide if it applies to them ... that not making estimates of the cost, performance, and schedule for the project are needed?
The first question is - what's the value at risk? Trust alone is likely possible in low value at risk. In that case, the impact of not showing up on or before the needed time, at or below the needed cost, and with ot without all the needed capabilities for the mission or business case fulfillment has much less impact and therefore is acceptable.
|
Trust |
Trust but Verify |
|
6 week DB update with 3 developers |
18 month ERP integration with 87 developers whose performance is reported to the BoD on a quarterly basis |
|
Water filter install in kitchen using the local handyman |
Water filter install in kitchen with wife testing to see if it does what it said in the brochure |
|
Install the finch feeder on the pole attached to the back deck in front of the kitchen window overlooking the golf course. |
Design and build the 1,200 square foot deck attached to the second floor on the back of the house using the architect's plans and schedule the county for the inspection certificate so it can be used last summer. |
|
Arrange for a ride in a glider at the county airport sometime Saturday afternoon |
Plan departure from DIA and check for departure delay of SWA flight DEN to DCA. |
In the first instances (left column) trust us, we'll be done in the 6-week window probably means that team doesn't need to do much estimating other than the agree among themselves that the Promise made to the manager has a good chance of coming true.
The second (right column) $178M ERP integration project in a publicly traded firm, filing their 10K and subject to FASB 86, and having promised the shareholders, insured, and the provider network that the new system will remove all the grief of the several dozen legacy apps will be made all better - on or before the Go Live date announced at the Board Meeting and in the Press has a good chance of coming true.
To assess that chance, more than Trust is needed. Evidence of the probability of completing on or before the go-live date and at or below the target budget is needed. That probability is developed with an estimating process and updated on a periodic basis - in this case every month, with a mid-month assessment of the month end's reportable data.
So next time you hear...
...think of the Value at Risk, the fiduciary responsibility to those funding your work, to ask and produce an answer to the question of how much, when, and what will be delivered. And even possibly the compliance responsibility - SOX, CMS, FAR/DFARS, ITIL - for knowing to some degree of confidence the Estimate To Complete and the Estimate at Complete for your project. Writing 6-week warehouse apps, probably not much value. Spending 100's of millions of stockholders money and betting the company likely knowing something like those numbers is needed.
Trust Alone is Open Loop Trust but Verify is Closed Loop
