Vasco Duarte posted on twitter a quote (without link) ...

*Bad estimation is a systematic problem, not an individual failure ...*

The chart below is from a much larger briefing on Essential Views needed to increase the probability of success in the software intensive systems domain. Vasco is correct. The question is what to do about it.

So the question for those ACAT 1 Programs ($6B and above) and every other domain where cost and schedule overage is common is - *what's the approach*. In our domain we have approaches. One is below, there are others.

But it would seem that "not estimating" is an unlikley candidate for addressing poor estimating.