This quote has two interpretations:
- New ideas from beginners provide many more opportunities for good results than from experts.
- Experts understand the consequences of untested, unproven, ill conceived ideas on the probability of success for mission critical, high value at risk projects.
I want to thank Tom Peters @tom_peters for stimulating this clarity.
In parallel with this notion of novices know better and experts have limited possibilities is the conjecture that:
Do it Right the First Time is the dumbest statement ever uttered by a human being
In the absence of a domain and context in that domain, that statement is of little value - a nice platitude with no actionable outcomes.
Here's an example from personal experience.
Mars Science Laboratory represents the first use of a "soft landing" technique called the Sky Crane maneuver. The sheer mass of Mars Science Laboratory prevented engineers from using the familiar airbags to deliver their rover safely to the martian surface. As rovers become more capable and carry more instruments, they become larger. So, in order to accommodate this advanced mission, engineers designed a sky-crane method that will lower the rover to the surface.
This mission was built and tested by the same people who built and flew most of the other Mars missions, right here in town. The decent shield, engines and other processes had to work the first time as a system and could not be tested as a system, since the final testing could only take place on Mars.
"Courisity relies on untried Sky Crane for Mars descent"
So in this case (domain) it has to work the first time, or the mission is lost.
The consequences failing for the first time to reach your audience and gets a round of applause at a conference on a new topic may mean not being invited back.
So when we read all those posts about agreeing with the do it right is the worst things that ever happened, ask if those posters have ever worked on a mission critical must work project where billions are at risk? Maybe lives aren't a risk on Mars lander, but Nuke Power start ups, weapons plants cleanups with loose plutonium laying on the floor, off shore unattended gas platforms, ABM intercept missiles, and the like are actually in the domain of do it right the first time.
Those who use the terms fail often may not have experienced these high value at risk conditions, where failure is actually not an option. Lovell's comment to his ground partner during their joint talk at a PMI conference was Gene says Failure was not an option. I'd have to say Success was our only option.
Succeeding on the first try is mandated in many domains. Doesn't mean you haven't prepared in depth for that first try. But it is naive at best to think that failure is to be tolerated in the absence of a domain and context that assesses the consequences of that failure.
Those who suggest fail often and you'll learn more in the absence of a domain, context, and Value at Risk are just repeating a platitude in the absence of witnessing the BBR aftermath of failure.
Our past experiences informs our current world view, mine is from mission critical - literally do or die - experiences. So I'm jaded on making over generalized statements in the absence of domain and context.
A good example of this do it right the first time can be found in the history of RFETS, where the consequences of failure were very high. One of the brilliant strategies of the first CEO was to hire Navy ship and submarine Captains who understood those consequences and behaved accordingly when faced with a high value at risk situation.
So when you hear I've tried this, maybe you should try it as well. Or just try it, when you've failed you'll be better for it. Ask if that speaker has any experience outside his own anecdotal domain to make a credible assessment of the applicability of his suggestion?
From https://blog.slideshare.net/2014/12/12/entrepreneurial-expertise-guy-kawasakis-3-must-see-decks/
