Herding Cats

How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem

One suggestion from the #NoEstimates community is the use of empirical data of past performance. This is many time called yesterdays weather. First let's make sure we're not using just the averages from yesterdays weather. And even adding the variance... Read more →

Some More Background on Probability, Needed for Estimating

The continued lack of understanding of the underlying probability and statistics of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty to plague the discussion of estimating software. All elements of all projects are statistical in nature. This statistical behaviour - reducible... Read more →

Critical Success Factors of IT Forecasting

The Estimation problem in enterprise IT and Software Intensive System has been with us for decades if not from the beginning of time in the software business. While not software, but a hardware implementation of an algorithm, Alan Turing's problem... Read more →

Quote of the Day

I have a card on my desk with a cute quote May the Sun Always Shine Down on You ...as a constant reminder that there is a giant nuclear-powered fireball in the sky just barely holding it together. Simply said... Read more →

Incremental Delivery of Features May Not Be Desirable

There is a popular notion in agile that incremental delivery of Features allows the project to stop at any time and deliver value to those paying for the work. This is another concept of agile, in the absence of a... Read more →

Flaw of Averages

There is a popular notion in agile estimating that a time series of past performance can be used to forecast the future performance of the project. Here's a clip of that time series.It is conjectured that data like this can... Read more →

Calculating Value from Software Projects - Estimating is a Risk Reduction Process

Software can provide increased benefits to internal users, with the firm paying for the development or acquisition of that software. Software can also reduce costs to the users in exchange for the cost of development or acquisition of the software.... Read more →

Capabilities Based Planning First Then Requirements

When I hear about requirements churn, bad requirements management - which is really bad business management, emergent requirements that turn over 20% a month for a complete turnover in 4 months - it's clear there is a serious problem in... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition. - Adam Smith Wealth of Nations If you hear a conjecture or a claim that sounds like it is not what you were taught in school, doesn't seem... Read more →

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

The quote in the title is from Tim Lister. It says volumes about project management and project failure. It also means that managing risk is managing in the presence of uncertainty. And managing in the presence of uncertainty means making... Read more →

The Microeconomics of Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty - Re-Deux

Microeconomics is a branch of economics that studies the behavior of individuals and small impacting organizations in making decisions on the allocation of limited resources. All engineering is constrained optimization. How do we take the resources we've been given and... Read more →

Feynman Lectures Now Online

The Feynman Lectures were a staple of my education, including having Feynman come to UC Irvine a speak to the Student Physics Society on his current work in Quantum Electrodynamics (QED). The 3 volume set is still in our library.... Read more →

Five Estimating Pathologies and Their Corrective Actions

Jim Benson has a thought provoking post on the Five Pathologies of estimating. Each is likely present in an organization that has not moved up the maturity scale. Maturity levels in the CMMI paradigm. The post, like many notions in... Read more →

Release Early and Release Often

After a conversation of sorts about release early and release often it's clear that without a domain this notion is a very nice platitude with no way to test its applicability in an actual business and technical environment. Like many... Read more →

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

On twitter there are several threads which speak to an underlying issue of managing in the presence of uncertainty. Ranging from we can make decisions without estimating to you can't possibly estimate the outcomes that occur in the future to... Read more →

When Is Delivering Early Not That Much Value?

There is a phrase in agile deliver early and deliver often. Let's test this potential platitude in the enterprise and software intensive systems business Let's look at Delivery Often. Often needs to match the business rhythm of the project or... Read more →

Quote of the Day

It's not so much about the creativity of the work, it's about emoting on an economically based schedule. - Sean Penn talking with John Krakauer At the end of the day all the work we do is about converting money... Read more →

Managing Projects By The Numbers

When we hear we don't need deadlines; we don't need estimates; we can slice work small enough to have each and every activity be the same size, with no variance; we can use small samples with ±30% variance to forecast... Read more →

Pi Day

March 14, 2015 3/14/15 at 9:26:53 AM π=3.141592653 Read more →

Estimating Probabilistic Outcomes? Of Course We Can!

At a client site in Sacramento, CA off and on since last December. Driving back to hotel tonight, there was a radio show on the current Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3). A former Colorado neighbor is an earthquake... Read more →