Herding Cats

Empirical Data Used to Estimate Future Performance Re-Deux

Came across this puzzling tweet today ... real empirical data & using probability to forecast are worlds apart. I don't buy "estimation uses data" argument. This is always reminds me of Wolfgang Pauli's remark to a colleague who showed him... Read more →

Open Loop Thinking v. Close Loop Thinking

Inspired by the Book Getting Things Done (GTD), my training and experience in control systems, Systems Engineering, and process improvement, there are two classes of thinkers when it comes to decision making. The Open Loop thinker assert they are efficient... Read more →

Managing by (mis)quoting Deming

It is very popular to quote a person who made a significant contribution to some field. Deming is popularly used in the Agile domain for his quotes. I use them often, sometimes out of context. A classic recent out of... Read more →

Quote of the Day

When you have mastered numbers, you will in fact no longer be reading numbers, any more than you read words when reading books. You will be reading meanings. –W. E. B. Du Bois, American sociologist, historian, civil rights activist As... Read more →

Criteria for a "Good" Estimate

There are a large number of statements about estimating that are flawed from the start. From Dilbert's manager's use of estimates, to naive use of statistics, to suggesting the future can not be modeled, project's are too unstable, estimates are... Read more →

Fibonacci Numbers, Agile, and the Actual Mathematics

In Agile Fibonacci numbers are the latest rage. But it's just that the latest rage. The reason for using the Fibonacci sequence is to reflect the inherent uncertainty in estimating larger items. What this means is the larger the size... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Unless you tackle a problem that's already been solved, which is boring, or one whose solution is clear from the beginning, mostly you're stuck - Yitang Zhang, from an interview about his solution to the "Bounded Gaps Between Primes" problem Read more →

Why We Need Governance

Governance (in the software development domain) is based on specifying the decision rights and accountabilities needed to elicit desired behaviours in the development and sustainment of products and service. Business Governance Is the set of decisions that define expectations, grants... Read more →

Managing in the Presence of Uncertainty

All project work is driven by underlying uncertainty from people, processes, technology, and tools. Let me restate for clarity Certainty is an Illusion, if you're looking for certainty, you're not going to find it in the project domain. You're not... Read more →

What is a Team?

There is a recurring discussion on many domains, especially software development, and especially agile development about what is a team. From my experience in the military, then leading project managers, then leading program management offices, that getting the definition of... Read more →

The Use, Misuse, and Abuse of Complexity and Complex

Our world is complex and becoming more complex all the time. We are connected and in turn driven by a complex web of interacting technology and processes. These interacting technologies and processes are implemented by information and communication technologies that... Read more →

Failure is not an Option

There is a popular noton in the agile world, and some business guru's that failure is encouraged as part of the learning process. What is not stated is when and where this failure can take place. The picture to the... Read more →

The Cost Estimating Problem

In probability theory, de Finetti's theorem† explains why exchangeable observations are conditionally independent given some latent variable to which an epistemic probability distribution would then be assigned. It is named in honor of Bruno de Finetti. It states that an... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Galileo Galilei, Letter to the Grand Duchess Christina of Tuscany (1615) .... Considering the force exerted by logical deductions, they may ascertain that it is not in the power of the professors of demonstrative sciences to change their opinions at... Read more →

A Mathematical Interlude

The epitaph on Diophantus tomb reads: This tomb holds Diophantus. Ah, what a marvel! And the tomb tells scientifically the measure of his life. God vouchsafed that he should be a boy for the sixth part part of his life;... Read more →