Herding Cats

Hope is not a Strategy

We don't need to Hope the sun will come up tomorrow. That probability is 100%. The probability that the outpatient surgery you've scheduled next week will be successful is high. The surgeon has done this procedure 1,000's of time with... Read more →

Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

If you're on a project that has certainty, then you're wasting your time estimating. If you are certain things are going to turn out the way you think they are when you have choices to make about the future, then... Read more →

Decision Analysis and Software Project Management

An announcement can across in email today from AACEI (Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International), about a Denver meeting on Decision Analysis. Decision Analysis provides ways to incorporate judgments about uncertainty into the evaluation of alternatives. Cost professionals... Read more →