All project work is probabilistic. All decision making in the presence of probabilistic systems requires making estimates of future emerging outcomes.
But to do this properly we need to have a standard set of terms that can form the basis of understanding the problem and the solution.
When those terms are redefined for what ever reason, the ability to exchange ideas is lost. For example there is a popular notion that defining terms in support of an idea is useful
- Forecasting and estimating are different things
- Estimating is about past, precent and future
- Forecasting is an estimate about the future
- Monte Carlo Simulation is the same of Boot Strapping sampling
- Monte Carlo is an algorithm process of selecting data from under a probabilistic distribution function
- Boot strapping is sampling existing data from past samples
- MCS uses a PDF not past data
- Probabilistic forecasting outperforms estimating every time
- Probabilistic forecasting IS estimating
