When I use a word Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, it means just what I choose to mean - neither more nor less.
The question is, said Alice, whether you can make words mean so many different things.
The question is said Humpty Dumpty which is to be the master.
Through the Looking Glass, Chapter 6
The mantra of #NoEstimates is that No Estimates is not about Not Estimating. Along with that oxymoron comes
Forecasting is Not Estimating
- Forecasting the future based on past performance is not the same as estimating the future from past performance.
- The Humpty Dumpty logic is Forecasting ≠ Estimating.
This, of course, redefines the standard definition of both terms. Estimating is a rough calculation or judgment of a value, number, quantity, or extent of some outcome.
An estimate is Approximation, prediction, or projection of a quantity based on experience and/or information available at the time, with the recognition that other pertinent facts are unclear or unknown.
- Let’s estimate how many Great Horned Owls are in the county by sampling.
- Let’s estimate the total cost of this project using reference classes assigned to work element duration and running a Monte Carlo simulation
Forecasting is a prediction of a future event
- Let’s produce weather forecast for the next five days
Both Estimating and Forecasting result in a probabilistic output in the presence of uncertainty
Slicing is Not Estimating??
Slicing work into smaller pieces so that "standard" size can be used to project the work effort and completion time. This is a standard basis of estimate in many domains. So slicing is Not Estimating in the #NoEstimates paradigm. In fact slicing is Estimating, another inversion of the term
No means Yes
Past Performance is #NoEstimates
using Past Performance to estimate future performance is core to all estimating processes. Time series used to estimate possible future outcomes is easily done with ARIMA, 4 lines of R, and some raw data as shown in The Flaw of Averages. But as described there, care is needed to confirm the future is like the past.
When We Redefine Words to Suite Our Needs We're Humpty Dumpty
Lewis Carol's Alice in Wonderland is political allegory of 19th century England. When #NoEstimates redefines established mathematical terms like Forecasting and Estimating and ignores the underlying mathematics for time series forecasting, ARIMA for example, they are willfully ignoring established practices and replacing them with their own untested conjectures.
The key here ways to make decisions with NO ESTIMATES. OK, show how that is not actually an estimating technical, no matter how simple or flawed and estimating technical.
