Compendium of Debunking #NoEstimating Conjectures and Fallacies

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates

Here's some reading to help understand why its bunk and how to learn to estimate in the presence of uncertainty in order to make better decisions.

This list starts with the latest posts and goes back to 2009. 

So when you hear about all the posts from #NoEstimates advocates, take a look here to see if those posts provide any actionable outcomes that can be put to the test on actual projects, based on any principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision theory, the microeconomics of software development - other than Slicing. 

1. Deconstruction the #NoEstimates Conjecture, This presentation is showing up again. When it first appeared, I thought, the author needed to do some more research because most of the principles presented here are erroneous in principle. And the practices are not connected to any principle.
2. Aleatory Uncertainty Versus Epistemic Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Making - The Fallacy of #NoEstimates - It is a common mistake, performed by many in the No Estimates community, to fail to understand that all risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in only two forms: Reducible and Irreducible
3. Plucked by Puffery - When we read unsubstantiated claims like those found in some agile outlets, this quote should remind us that those are expressed opinions and NOT  statements of Fact, based on any recognizable principle of managing software in the presence of uncertainty.
4. Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty - Making decisions is part of spending other people's money. It's part of Risk Management. It's part of our everyday lives. Many of the decisions we make in our lives are qualitative. When we're spending other people's money, we need to make quantitative decisions, based on some tangible evidence. This evidence can be from past decisions and their outcomes. Or it can be from a model of future outcomes.
5. You Can Not "Control" Projects - #NoEstimates advocates are right, you can not control projects. All projects, no matter the domain, processes, or technology, operate in the presence of uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory). But what you can do is manage in the presence of these uncertainties.
6. Guide to Stopping #NoEstimates Fallacies - Evaluating the evidence of good project management processes is critically important to both the developers, management and those paying for the software. These 12 points help separate the principles, practices, and processes from the pseudoscience, bad mathematics, willful ignorance of management principles and governance to the outright hoaxes.
7. Return of the Swamp Monster (Standish Report) - Some #Noestimates advocates are heard quoting the Standish Report, reporting the non-data date that 60% of IT projects fail and of course that NOT ESTIMATING would have somehow, by some means, through some magical force has saved these projects. And like the return of the swamp monster, this long-debunked notion came back and needs to be put to bed again.
8. Darwinian Truth and Reality in Software Development Management - Jordan Peterson put forth the idea that “empirical” truth (e.g. the Earth is a sphere) is all well and good, but if that truth runs contrary to information that will allow you to spread your genes then it stops being useful. And at that same moment, it stops being true.
9. Software Estimating Processes and Fallacy of the Week - I'm continually building the bibliography for our Software Intensive Systems of Systems work activities and found in "A review of Agile Software Effort Estimation Methods"
10. #NoEstimates is Open-Loop Control - Here's a summary of why Project Management, Risk Management, Estimating, Root Cause Analysis, and other project management processes are a Closed Loop Control System
11. Another Fallacy of the Week - #NoEstimates - You can make an estimate - one that is better than chance would produce - of how many children have been born into a Dutch or Danish family by counting the storks' nests on the roof of their house. In statistical terminology, it would be said that a positive correlation has been found to exist between these two things. What sounds like proof of an ancient myth is actually something far more valuable. It is an easily remembered reminder of a useful truth: an association between two factors is not proof that one has caused the other.
12. CAN You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating? The answer to this question starts with a simple principle-based notion. The #Noestimates advocates didn’t start there. They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. Not considering those who pay their salary have a fiduciary obligation to know something about cash demands and profit resulting from the investment work in the future.
13. A Decoder Ring for #NoEstimates - the post that started it all. Answers to questions that really have no basis, other than personal anecdotes
14. The #NoEstimates Finale - Pat Richard wrote the blog I wanted to. I've had a conversation of sorts with one of the "leaders" of the #NoEstimates movement who talked in circles when asked where is this method applicable outside your examples of a 5-week project and cleanup of bugs on another project? 
15. Can We Make a Decision Without Knowing the Cost? - There is an immutable set of questions that need answers before we can determine the probability of success for our project. The NE advocates don't ask or answer these questions.
16. How to Forecast the Future - In the YouTube presentation from the previous post, titled Predicting the Future, there was a statement made about minute 9:08 where it is stated the only way that you can estimate is if you can look into the future and that requires precognition, which we don't have. For those of us earning our living by looking into the future, this brings a smile.
17. Predicting the Future - With the #NoEstimates topic still ringing in my ears, here's an interesting presentation from one of the supporters of this concept. It has many good concepts, one serious math error, and connects well with how we manage and work billion-dollar programs.
18. This Does Not Scale - If there are software development projects that can be executed without knowing how much it will cost at the end (an open-ended spend plan), or projects where the budget is capped (a Not To Exceed Number) and we don't need to know the upper bound of the features to be delivered, how large can this notion scale?
19. How NOT to Estimate Anything - The #NoEstimates discussion now has something to talk about. There is a presentation titled Re-Estimating the Value of Estimating. While there little here that is applicable in our software-intensive world, I had a smile when I came to this slide.
20. What's Gonna Cost and When Will We Be Done? - What's it gonna cost and when will you be done? And oh yea, ...it will work enough to meet my mission success criteria, right?
21. Reference Design Concept - reference class forecast is the key to estimates if you've never done the work before
22. No More #NoEstimates Discussion - I've made the mistake of engaging the #NoEstimates crowd in questions about the usefulness of their idea. Not a group that likes to get questions, by the way. They use the old Ron Jeffries approach (which has since passed for him) of well just try it to see if it works for you. 
23. Why Estimating Is Mandatory - The #NoEstimates notion has merit in the right domain. If you're looking for motivation for estimates outside of the domain where the customer doesn't care about the final cost, just the final product developed inside a "level of effort" budget, look here and remember.
24. No Estimates Mean Better Estimates? - Value at Risk means how much money and time are you willing to risk without understanding how much time and money is at risk.
25. Credible Estimating Processes - prediction is difficult, but the prediction is the basis of all decision making. We need to learn how to predict with credible methods. And stop accepting the notion that prediction is simply not possible.
26. Standing on the side of the road and pointing out problems -There a number of people in the Project Management world that seem to take delight in standing on the side of the road pointing out all the failures of projects, processes, and the people managing them.
27. Planning, Plans, and Execution of the Plan - An interview with Jeff Sutherland and Hank de Velde brings up some important notions in program and project management.
28. Hume's Advice for Theoretical Business Process Advice - Hume has some advice for the proffers of business or process improvement that fail to provide tangible evidence from the field that such advice actually works in a domain interesting to the reader
29. Estimates and all that... - Esther Derby has a post on estimating. The thread seems to go that estimating is helpful but estimates are not. Let's start with estimating in a domain where we are spending other people's money. Better yet an environment where we are spending the money of a sovereign - the United States of America.
30. How Many SW Projects Have No Concern About Budget or Schedule? - Rob Schneider posted a comment suggesting the PM 2.0 proponents "are people (that) tend to have experience/careers in industries and on projects where the scope is fungible."
31. Software Estimating - Pawel commented on the previous post about the difficulties in making estimates of the duration and cost of the software. From an introduction to a seminar conducted by the 309th SMXG in Ogden Utah.
32. Using Estimates as a Management Tool - For some reason, I've been hooked by David Anderson's conjectures about estimating. This has developed over time, mainly because my role in the current project is to aide in the production of a "credible" Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), where estimates of schedule and cost over the life of the program must be made during the proposal. This includes software, hardware, integration, and test.
33. Management is a Control System - With all the discussion about estimating, controlling, and sometimes even managing project it may be useful to have a paradigm of managing anything.
34. A Fundamental Principle of Writing Software for Money - When there is a sunk cost of any development, be it software, hardware, concrete, a gene-editing anti-virus drug - the value of the resulting product or service is directly related to that sunk cost. 
35. Reference Class Forecasting for Software Estimating - When it is conjectured You can't do estimates on software projects stop for a second and think about that concept? Really, "you have no idea what so ever about how long this will take and how much it will cost?" I don't want to estimate because I think it is a waste of time is a bit different. That says you're either too lazy to do the estimating, I don't you know how to do the estimating, or you just want to get going and write software, because that's what you do for a living.
36. Don't Do Stupid Things On Purpose
37. Don't Do Stupid Things on Purpose- The Saga Continues - This list is a cautionary tale, to remind everyone that where there is advice in the absence of principles, processes, and practices based on those principles - ask a simple question does this advice have any evidence of being credible outside the personal anecdotes of the person providing the advice? No? don't listen. Yes? then ask for the evidence to substantiate the claim. 
38. Software Estimating Taxonomy - In the discussion of #NoEstimates, it seems difficult to discover what type of software is being built where #NE are applicable.
39. The Problem Using Platitudes For Management Guidance - One quote used as a Platitude for the #NoEstimates discussion
40. Alternatives to Agile Estimation - Neil Kellick has a presentation on the alternatives to estimation on agile projects. Neil is a proponent of #NoEstimates.
41. How to get a "D" in the Freshman Finance Class - A vocal #NoEstimates poster on twitter has a wonderful statement #NoEstimates is about making decisions and maximizing ROI (Return on Investment) Except of course for one slight problem.
42. Why Hasn't #NoEstimates Produced Actionable Outcomes Yet?
43. Forecasting The Future is Sporty Business, So Knowledge, Skill, and Experience is Needed
44. Want to Forecast the Future? Here's How - Part 2
45. Critical Thinking Insight
46. #NoEstimates Makes Contact With Reality
47. Facts and Fallacies of Estimating Software Cost and Schedule
48. Can We Make Decisions Without Feedback?
49. Fooled By Randomness
50. Coming to the Table with Facts Improves the Conversation
51. Estimating Accuracy
52. Nice Estimating Example
53. Quote of the Day - More Statistics for Decision Making 
54. How To and How Not To Make Credible Estimates of Cost and Schedule
55. Books for Cost and Schedule Forecasting
56. Indicators of project performance provide us with "Steering Inputs"
57. How To Estimate Almost Any Software Deliverable in 90 Seconds - here's an example to debunk all those posts that say e can't possibly estimate things we don't know the details of. This is a Wide Band Delphi process that has been around for 
58. Estimating Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance
59. What Software Domain Do You Work In?
60. How To Estimate, If You Really Want To (Updated)
61. Five Ways To Rethink Software Projects
62. Quote of the Day
63. Statistical Process Control The Basis of All Modern Control Systems
64. Quote of the Day
65. Black Swans and "They Never Saw It Coming"
66. Statistics, Bad Statistics, and Damn Lies
67. Straight Forward, Logical Approaches to Spending Other Peoples Money
68. Can There Be Successful Projects With Fixed Dates, Fixed Budgets, and Promised Minimal Features?
69. All Value Production Is Time Phased
70. All Value Assessments Must Know the Cost
71. Alert - Was Poor PM the Root Cause of ACA Difficulties?
72. The Value of Making An Estimate
73. Processes for Increasing the Probability of Project Success
74. How To Estimate Almost Anything If You Really Want To
75. Is fine-grained decomposition of work the same as "Not Estimating?"
76. Managing In The Presence Uncertainty - Redux
77. Quote of the Day
78. How Not To Develop What "Done" Looks Like
79. Elements of Project Success
80. Resources for Moving Beyond the "Estimating Fallacy"
81. How to Fib With Statistics
82. 3 Impediments To Actual Improvement in the Presence of Dysfunction
83. Three Kinds of Uncertainty About the Estimated Cost and Schedule
84. It's an Estimating Problem not A Problem with Estimating
85. Let's Stop Guessing and Learn How to Estimate
86. Slicing Work Into Small Pieces
87. Why Johnny Can't Estimate or the Dystopia of Poor Estimating Practices
88. Quote of the Day - Capabilities state the intent of the commander
89. Quote of the Day - Nice hypothesis you have there, be a shame if some were to test it
90. Why Software is Like Construction and Why it is Not
91. If This is How You See Management ...
92. Some more answers to the estimating questions
93. Back To The Future
94. Danger Will Robinson - it's not your money
95. Answers to Shim's Questions - the answer's to Shim's questions about Estimates are Not Estimates
96. Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking - all project work is probabilistic based on underlying statistical uncertainty
97. Cost is KING, No Way Out Of It
98. Quote of the Day - Software-intensive project work is indeterminate.
99. 8 Reasons Why Estimates Are Too Low
100. To Stay In Business You Need to Know Both Value and Cost
101. Four Critical Elements of Project Success - each element has statistical behaviors that require estimates to provide information for decisions
102. DDSTOP Part Deux - Don't Do Stupid Things on Purpose - Part 2
103. Project Finance - all project is guided by managerial finance and microeconomics of decision making, whether you know it or not
104. How To Fix Martin Fowler's Estimating Problem in 3 Easy Steps
105. Elements of Project Success - project efficiency, impact on the customer, business success, preparing for the future
106. New Books for Work - making multiple decisions, forecasting and simulating software development projects, forecasting methods and applications
107. Concept of Operations First, then Capabilities, then Requirements
108. Connecting the Dots Between Principles and Practices of Project Success
109. We Can Know the Business Value of What We Build?
110. We're Asking the Wrong Question - does this suggestion (#NoEstimates) increase the probability of project success?
111. IT Governance and Decision Rights - those spending the money rarely of ever have the right to decide how, unless explicitly given that right by those providing the money
112. Is There Such a Thing As Making Decisions Without Knowing the Cost? - We can't decide without knowing the cost and benefits of the resulting decision
113. The Calculus of Writing Software for Money, Part II - the microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty
114. Why is Statistical Thinking Hard? - in the presence of uncertainty, probability and statistical is needed to make decisions
115. Operationalism - When we hear about a process, a technique, or a tool, ask in what unit of measure are you assessing the beneficial outcome of applying those?
116. Quote of the Day - Writing SW For Money Is Micro-Economics
117. All Project Numbers are Random Numbers — Act Accordingly - The numbers that appear in projects — cost, schedule, performance — are all random variables drawn from an underlying statistical process.
118. How to "Lie" with Statistics - much of the #NoEstimates argument is built on Bad Management and Bad Mathematics
119. Why We Must Learn to Estimate
120. How To Measure Anything - the notion that we can't estimate the future is nonsense, of course, we can. To what precision and accuracy that's the question.
121. Quote of the Day - Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation — Pierre-Simon Laplace1749-1827)
122. Making Estimates For Your Project Requires Discipline, Skill, and Experience
123. An Agile Estimating Story
124. Response to Consolidating #NoEstimates
125. Staying on Plan Means Closed Loop Control
126. More Than Target Needed To Steer Toward Project Success - successful projects need closed-loop control, and that means Estimate to Complete and Estimate At Completion 
127. The Use and Misuse of Little's Law and Central Limit Theorem in Agile - misuse of Little's Law is common in Kanban and Agile
128. Can Enterprise Agile Be Bottom-Up? - YES
129. How To Make Decisions
130. Why Project Management is a Control System
131. How Not To Make Decisions Using Bad Estimates
132. The Myth of Incremental Development
133. The Power of Misattributed and Misquoted Quotes
134. The Failure of Open Loop Thinking
135. Control Systems - Their Misuse and Abuse
136. Quote of the Day - Gentlemen, we have run out of money; now we have to think - Winston Churchill
137. Critical Thinking Skills Needed for Any Change To Be Effective
138. The Value of Information - Since all variables on all projects are random - cost, schedule, and delivered capabilities, in the economics of projects, the chance of being wrong and the Cost of being wrong is the expected opportunity cost.
139. How to Estimate Software Development - Update
140. Estimating Software-Intensive Systems
141. No Estimates Needs to Come In Contact With Those Providing the Money
142. Making Choices in the Absence of Information
143. An Example of Complete Misunderstanding of Project Work
144. The Cost of Value in the Future
145. Statistical Significance
146. Quote of the Day - All Things Project Are Probabilistic
147. Management is Prediction - W. Edwards Deming
148. What I Don't Know Can Actually Hurt Me - The notion of not knowing the impact of decisions, choices, approaches is like putting your head in the sand because you don't like the answer or don't what to know the answer.
149. Complex Project Management - only a de minimis project is interesting for #Noestimates approach
150. Estimating on Agile Projects
151. Constructing a Credible Estimate
152. Software Estimating for Non-Trivial Projects
153. Show Me Your Math
154. When the Solution to Bad Management is a Bad Solution - the core notion of #Noestimates is it is the smell of dysfunction. This is a symptom, not a cause. Removing estimates does not fix the cause of Bad Management.
155. Estimating Guidance - With the plethora of opinions on estimating - some informed, many uninformed - here's my list of books and papers that inform our software estimating activities for Software Intensive Systems.
156. Quote of the Day - The most unsuccessful three years in the education of cost estimators appears to be fifth-grade arithmetic - Norman R. Augustine
157. Should I Be Estimating My Work?
158. Basis of #NoEstimates are 27-Year-Old Reports - one of the original advocates of #NoEstimates is basing his argument on a 27-year-old report.
159. Baloney Claims: Pseudoscience and the Art of Software Methods 
160. Decision Making Without Estimates?
161. Intentional Disregard for Good Engineering Practices? - It seems lately there is an intentional disregard of the core principles of business development of software-intensive systems.
162. All The World's A Random Process 
163. The Actual Science in Management Science - Planning for an uncertain future calls for a shift in information management — from single numbers to probability distributions — to correct the "flaw of averages."
164. Planning is the Basis of Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty
165. Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty
166. The False Notion of "we haven't seen this before"
167. Your Project Needs a Budget and Other Things 
168. Closed-Loop Control - Writing software for money is a Closed Loop Control System.
169. The Myth and Half-Truths of "Myths and Half-Truths" - I love it when there is a post about Myths and Half-Truths, that is itself full of Myths and Half-Truths.
170. Conveniently Unburdened by Evidence
171. Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - this is a core concept for all project success. Risk management requires estimating probabilities of occurrence, ranges of variance, and probabilities of impact. Take Lister's advice to heart. Not doing Risk Management is managing other people's money as a Child would.
172. Three Increasingly Mature Views of Estimate Making in IT Projects - Update
173. Estimating Guidance - Updated - some more updates to how to estimate. No reason not to learn how.
174. Real Life Sources of Empirical Data for Project Estimates - want empirical data, here's where to find it. No reason to claim we've never done this before. Go find the data or someone who knows the data.
175. Intellectual Honesty of Managing in the Presence of Uncertainty
176. Software Engineering is a Verb - I advise my students to listen carefully to the moment they decide to take no more mathematics courses. They might be able to hear the sound of closing doors - James Caballero. "Everyone is a Mathematician," CAIP Quarterly 1989. All projects are probabilistic, estimates are needed to manage them. Learn to estimate.
177. A Theory of Speculation
178. Here, There Be Dragons - value at risk is a core concept when deciding how much effort is to be applied to estimating outcomes for the future.
179. Quote of the Day - Ensure good data get to the Bad Decision Makers
180. What does it mean when we say 80% confidence in a number?
181. Sources for Reference Class Forecasting - Reference Class Forecasting is a core process by which estimates can be made for work you personally have not done before. There is NO excuse for not seeking out reference classes other than laziness.
182. We Suck At Estimating - this is the lamest excuse I've ever heard. Here's how to fix that.
183. Estimating is Risk Management - if Risk Management is how Adults manage projects, then Adult manage projects with estimates.
184. Planning And Estimating Is Required for Project Success - can't be any clearer.
185. Bayesian Statistics and Project Work - one of the original NE'ers claimed to be using Bayesian Statistics, Doubt that. Here's how.
186. Critical Success Factors of IT Forecasting  - quantifying IT forecasting is straight forward, here's how.
187. The flaw of Averages - there's a misplaced notion that averages the number of stories completed in the past will provide a forecast of the future. Start with The Flaw of Averages. Next, the future is rarely like the past. So on both accounts, this is a bad idea in the absence of actual statistical analysis of the numbers.
188. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - another post on behaving like an adult when spending other people's money.
189. The Microeconomics of Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty - Re-Deux - Microeconomics is the basis of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. #Noestimates willfully ignores these principles. 
190. Five Estimating Pathologies and Their Corrective Actions
191. Managing in Presence of Uncertainty - more managing guidance when spending other peoples money
192. When Is Delivering Early Not That Much Value? - one of the myths of agile is deliver early deliver often. Without a domain and context, doing this may have no value and may, in fact, create more trouble for the project.
193. Quote of the Day - t's not so much about the creativity of the work, it's about emoting on an economically based schedule- Sean Penn talking with John Krakauer. The whole notion of Value is misguided in many agile conversations. Value to who? What are the units of measure for Value?
194. Estimating Probabilistic Outcomes? Of Course, We Can! - anyone conjecturing you can't estimate a future outcome needs to learn 
195. Empirical Data Used to Estimate Future Performance Re-Deux - Came across this puzzling tweet today ... real empirical data & using probability to forecast are worlds apart. I don't buy "estimation uses data" argument. If more reason to learn how to do this and learn to call BS on those that don't.
196. Open Loop Thinking v. Close Loop Thinking
197. Managing by (mis)quoting Deming
198. Criteria for a "Good" Estimate
199. Fibonacci Numbers, Agile, and the Actual Mathematics
200. Managing in the Presence of Uncertainty - All project work is driven by underlying uncertainty from people, processes, technology, and tools. Let me restate for clarity Certainty is an Illusion, if you're looking for certainty, you're not going to find it in the project domain. You're not going to find it anywhere in the real world.
201. The Cost Estimating Problem - In probability theory, de Finetti's theorem† explains why exchangeable observations are conditionally independent given some latent variable to which an epistemic probability distribution would then be assigned. It is named in honor of Bruno de Finetti.
202. Quote of the Day - those suggesting we abandon the principles of Microeconomics of Software Development, it just ain't so
203. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - again just for a reminder
204. I Think You'll Find It's a Bit More Complicated Than That - When we encounter simple answers to complex problems, we need to not only be skeptical, we need to think twice about the credibility of the person posing the solution.
205. How We Make Decisions is as Important as What We Decide
206. Forecasting the Future is Critical to All Success
207. The Flaw of Empirical Data Used to Make Decisions About the Future - a popular meme Probabilistic forecasting will outperform estimation every time "It is not only not right, it is not even wrong."
208. Build a Risk-Adjusted Project Plan in 6 Steps - if you're going to be an adult about spending other people's money, time to act like.
209. Want To Learn How To Estimate? Part Troisième
210. Doing the Math - In the business of building software-intensive systems; estimating, performance forecasting and management, closed-loop control in the presence of uncertainty for all variables is the foundation needed for increasing the probability of success.
211. Estimates - Estimation and measurement of project attributes are critical success factors for designing, building, modifying, and operating products and services.
212. Economics of Software Development
213. Approximating for Improved Understanding
214. Debunking - “There’s nothing more dangerous than an idea – or a person – that’s almost right.” – Bono
215. Qui Bono - Estimates, for example, are for the business, why would the business no longer what an estimate of cost, schedule, or technical performance of the provided capabilities?
216. Who Builds a House without Drawings?
217. The Flaw of Averages and Not Estimating - another Flaw of Averages post. A must-read for any hearing #NoEstimates using average past performance.
218. The Microeconomics of a Project Driven Organization
219. Capability Maturity Levels and Implications on Software Estimating
220. Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty - If you're on a project that has certainty, then you're wasting your time estimating. If you are certain things are going to turn out the way you think they are when you have choices to make about the future, then estimating the impact of that choice is a waste of time.
221. Decision Analysis and Software Project Management
222. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem
223. Some More Background on Probability, Needed for Estimating
224. What Happened to our Basic Math Skills? - If the future is not identical to the past, how can we decide the presence of this future uncertainty?
225. Making Decisions In The Presence of Uncertainty - Decision making is hard. Decision making is easy when we know what to do. When we don't know what to do there are conflicting choices that must be balanced in the presence of uncertainty for each of those choices.
226. Information Technology Estimating Quality
227. Climbing Mountains Requires Good Estimates - The quote was Getting better at estimates is like using the time to plan the Everest climb instead of climbing smaller mountains for practice. Is another example of clueless NE advocates misusing a paradigm.
228. Carl Sagan's BS Detector - along with the Debunking posts, BS Detectors are very useful for sorting out all the noise around NE
229. Myth's Abound - Myths, misinformation, and magic bullets abound in the software development business. No more so than in the management and estimating of complex development projects.
230. Eyes Wide Shut - A View of No Estimates - When we hear all the difficulties, misuse, abuse, and inabilities for making software development estimates, the real question is what does the business think of this?
231. Humpty Dumpty and #NoEstimates - is the classic example of how #NoEstimates redefined the term Estimate to fit their needs.
232. Who's Budget is it Anyway?
233. The Dysfunctional Approach to Using "5 Whys" - Redux - the original poster of NE seriously misuses the notion of 5 Whys
234. Essential Reading List for Managing Other People's Money
235. Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Performance
236. Just Because You Say Words, It Doesn't Make Then True - some moe debunking of #NoEstimates claims
237. The Fallacy of the Planning Fallacy - another common misuse of ideas
238. Let's Stop Guessing and Start Estimating
239. A Framework for Managing Other Peoples Money
240. Anecdotes versus Numbers (Statistics) - #NoEstimates is nothing but anecdotes. Show me the numbers
241.  Why Bother with Probability and Statistics?
242. One More #NoEstimates Post
243. Observation Issues and Root Cause Analysis - if you don't have the Root Cause, suggesting #NoEstimates isn't going to fix anything
244. Is #NoEstimates a House Built on Sand? - Estimates have little value to those spending the money.
     Estimates are of critical value to those providing the money.
245. How To Make Decisions - Decisions are about making Trade-Offs for the project
246. Earned Value + Agile a Match Made in Heaven? - Yes
247. How To Lie With Statistics - is a critically important book to have on your desk if you're involved any decision making
248. The Flaw of Averages - more cautions from original #NE'ers about using past performance and just averaging the numbers to forecast future performance.
249. No Signal Means, No Steering Target, Means No Corrective Actions
250. Flaws and Fallacies of #NoEstimates - The decision-maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states of the system in the future and the resulting outcomes of those states. This is how it works in the real world of business.
251. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing
252. Making Conjectures Without Testable Outcomes
253. Estimating and Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty
254. Estimating Processes in Support of Economic Analysis
255. Are Estimates Really The Smell of Dysfunction? - answer NO They're Not. That was a BS conjecture. Go find the Root Cause and fix that. Estimates are just a tool of all business decision making.
256. What's the Smell of Dysfunction? - a follow up from the nonsense that estimates are the smell of dysfunction
257. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - another view of Tim Lister's quote
258. Software Engineering Economics - all decisions are economic decisions. Learn to use economics when spending other peoples money
259. Deterministic, Probabilistic, and Empiricism - empirical data is the favorite term for #NoEstimates. Doubt they actually know what that means.
260. The Economics Of Software Development
261. Slicing Work Into Small Chunks Is Not Without Hazard
262. The Myth of INVEST and Actual Systems
263. The Hard-Headed Realism of Business Decision Making - it's not your money, act accordingly
264. The Water Fall Myth - yet another #Noestimates myth busted
265. Why We Need To Estimate Software Cost and Schedule
266. SLOC (Source Lines of Code) - this post created a !@#$ storm from those unfamiliar with embedded controls systems and the near 1:1 relationship between SLOC and cost. Threatening to never use a product built with SLOCV estimates. You know airplanes, cars, train controls and the like. It's gonna be a long walk to work.
267. Bayesian Decision Making - again Bayesian statistics is very useful for estimating.
268. Decision Support is a Core Business Process
269. Estimates and Commitment 
270. Decision Making Means Making Inferences
271. All The World's a Random Variable
272. A Core Business Concept - The Investor's concern about returns over a limited horizon is a pervasive feature of all business management decision making.
273. Estimating Software-Intensive Systems - Estimation and the measurements that result are critical success factors for Software Intensive Systems.
274. Debunking: The Five Laws of Software Estimating - The Five Laws of Software Estimating contains several Bunk ideas. let's look at each of the Five
275. Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty
276. Immutable Principles of Managerial Finance When Spending Other Peoples Money - One of the primary responsibilities of management is to make decisions during the execution of projects so that gains are maximized and losses are minimized. Decision analysis is critical for projects with built-in flexibility, or options. when these choices operate in the presence of uncertainty.
277. The Twilight Zone Approach to Business Decision Making - When we hear about focusing on value first, delivery early and often, there is rarely any mention of the cost of that delivery.
278. Risk Management Is How Adults Manage Projects: Agile is Not Risk Management (Alone)
279. The Unmyths of Estimating
280. Another Myth Busted - There is a common misinformed conjecture that large programs are managed just like a military operation. Both these concepts are wrong - dead wrong.
281. Empirical and it's Use in Agile
282. Produce Shippable Software Every Sprint? Really - There is a popular notion is some circles of Scrum, that Sprints need to produce shippable software at the end of every Sprint. This, of course, depends as always on the domain.
283. Drip Funding, Slicing, Decomposing Large Projects Into Small Projects? - A domain is always needed before any suggestion for anything can be assessed to be applicable and useful beyond personal anecdotes.
284. The Economics of Sofware Quality - To predict the future of a software project with acceptable accuracy and precision, it is necessary to measure past projects and keep track of current and ongoing projects. Estimation and measurement are closely aligned, and good historical data is of great value in estimating future outcomes of future software projects. 
285. Agile at Scale - A Reading List (Update 9) of the Day - Planning is Everything, Plans are Nothing - a reminder that the misuse of quotes is rampant in #Noestimates, from Deming to Eisenhower.

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