Herding Cats

Memorial Day 2016

If we don't remember those who have died, they died for nothing From 1775 to Present - 2,852,901 Read more →

The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance

The basis of #Noestimates is that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without having to estimate the impact of those decisions Here's a research paper that hopefully will put an end to the nonsensical idea of #NoEstimates.... Read more →

Estimating on Agile Projects

Here's a straightforward approach to estimating on agile projects. This is an example of the estimating profession found on many domains. Read more →

How to Make a Decision in the Presence of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is all around us. In the project world, uncertanty comes in two forms: Aleatory Uncertainty - the naturally occurring variances due to the underlying statistical processes of the project. These can be schedule variances, cost variances, and technical variances... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Wise men profit more from fools than fools from wise men; for the wise men shun the mistakes of fools, but fool do not imitate the success of the wise - Cato the Elder Any conjecture not based on testable... Read more →

Book of the Month - IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to the Costing of Software

Estimating is part of all decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Accuracy and precision are two primary attributes of all estimates. We all know estimates are hard. But there are lots of hard things in the development of enterprise... Read more →

Thoughts on Suggestions That Violate Principles of Finance, Probability, and Statistics

The on-going discussions that Decisions can be made in the absence of estimates reminds me of this concept. The conjecture that we can manage in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts of our decisions, willfully ignores uncertainties in... Read more →

Quote of the Day

"It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision that the nature of the subject admits, and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible." Aristotle Read more →

Quote of the Day

Do not deny the classical approach, simply as a reaction, or you will have created another pattern and trapped yourself there. — Bruce Lee Any new innovative or revolutionary suggestion in the software development world, needs to be anchored on... Read more →

Learning Through Research

A primary learning process is research. This process is part of all science, engineering, management processes. Here's a starting point for learning how to estimate in the presence of uncertainty on agile projects. This is the start of a literature... Read more →

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

The conjecture of #NoEstimates starts with the first Tweet This conjectures - (there are) ... ways to make decisions with No Estimates ... is not founded on any principle of business management, microeconomics of decision making, or principles of probability... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Predictions are always difficult - especially about the future ― Niels Bohr ― Neandertal's Guide to Cost Estimating, Naval Aviation Systems This is a quote often used by those conjecturing that estimating is a waste. The quote is true of... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Guess: a conjecture based on little or no evidence Estimate: a guess made by an expert ― Neandertal's Guide to Cost Estimating, Naval Aviation Systems All project work is based on probabilities driven by statistical processes. All decisions made on... Read more →

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

All successful projects adhere to these five immutable principles during the lifecycle of the design, development, deployment, and operation. These principles are independent of any project or program domain or context in that domain. They are also independent of any... Read more →