When we see things happen, we attribute them to a reason. Not just basic observations in life, but observations on projects, and all the way down to the basics of ontology. If we observe certain things and those things behave in certain ways, we think there must be a reason why they do so.
This is actually a mistake. The mistake has a name - the Principle of Sufficient Reason. This term was coined by the German philosopher Gottfried Leibniz. But this idea started earlier and can be traced to Baruch Spinoza in the 17th Century. It can be stated as
Principle of Sufficient Reason: For any true fact, there is a reason why it is so, and why something else is not so instead
Leibniz said it simply nothing happens without a reason which is close to everything happens for a reason. The reason may only be known by others, sometimes only known by God.
So when we hear something like estimates are the smell of dysfunction, the popular starting point for the #NoEstimates advocates, we need to ask if estimates are the smell, what is the reason for that smell (and what is the smell)?
The fallacy of the original statement about estimates being the smell starts with the complete lack of the reason for the smell if in fact there is a smell. So let's parse the original idea
- There is a smell - what is that smell? There is no answer to date.
- Estimates are the reason - why would an estimate itself be the reason for the smell? There is no answer to date.
- I have evidence that Estimates don't work. Or I have evidence that Counting Stories is better than Counting Story Points. Why is this the case, you have a reason for your anecdotal observation?
Everything happens for a reason, quite similarly, every problem has an underlying cause.
Since root cause analysis is a whole process, the root cause has a multiple piece definition.
- Root causes are specific underlying causes, meaning they are not broad, but detailed.
- Root causes are those that can reasonably be identified, once the data is collected, the root cause will be obvious and clear. The Root Cause is actually a chain of cause and effect with a Condition and an Action.
You Can't Make a Statement About a Symptom Without Also Stating the Cause
So when you hear estimates are the smell of dysfunction or some other pithy tossed off phrase, and there is no objective evidence in the form of a condition and an activity (both are needed), then walk away, there's nothing of interest there that can help you with your real problems of managing in the presence of uncertainty
