Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating.
When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty?
Let’s start with the definition of a principle.
A Principle is a fundamental truth or proposition that serves as the foundation for a system of belief or behavior or for a chain of reasoning.” Or “a comprehensive and fundamental law, doctrine, or assumption.
Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post.
“#Noestimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, to make decision with “No estimates”
I’ll add some clarity to Woody’s conjecture. The domains of software development operate in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in two forms – reducible (Epistemic), with probabilistic processes and irreducible (Aleatory) with statistical processes. Estimates are needed to manage the risks created by these uncertainties. Those risks – reducible and irreducible – must be addressed during the decision making process as part of any management principle.
As Tim Lister tells us “Risk management is how Adults manage projects.”
So if we’re going to be adults when managing projects – especially with other people’s money – we need to manage risk. And to manage risk we need to make estimates to reduce, mitigate, or transfer those risk.
The only risk handling response that does not require making estimating is to IGNORE the risk. So it may be a principle of No Estimates when making decisions to IGNORE the risk.
So let’s look at the “principles” you mention. First these sound like practices rather than principles, given the definition of a Principle.
1. When the estimate is not going to be used, regardless of how quickly you can produce it, don’t create one.
If you’re not going to use ANYTHING don’t do it. This is about business management not about NOT Estimating.
2. Only estimate at the level of accuracy and precision required (or that has no incremental cost above what is required).
ALL good estimating guidance starts with the “value at risk,: What’s the cost of the estimate versus the payback for that estimate in terms of reducing risk. Standard estimating principles apply here. Don’t invest more than you intend to get back.
So this is a practice about making estimates. Not clear how it applies to NOT estimating.
3. Simplicity — the art of maximizing the amount of work not done — is essential.
This is a Systems Engineering principle (see http://www.incose.org) , but you need units of measure to make that happen – effectiveness and performance as a good start. ROI on ANYTHING you do is core business principle. And that ROI is operating in the presence of uncertainty for any non-trivial project. So we’re back to estimating needed to make decisions.
4. Question whether this principle (or its corollary) continues to apply.
This is common mantra of the #Noestimates community. Question what? Question the governance of the business? Governance is about decision rights (https://www.amazon.com/Governance-Performers-Decision-Superior-Results/dp/1591392535 ).
Do you have the right to question how budgeting and spending is done at your firm? Do you have the right to NOT provide estimates to those paying for the cost to develop the value produced from that expenditure? It ain’t your money. If it is, spend as you wish no one cares.
So your “principles” are actually good practices for making decision in the presence of uncertainty. Not principles for NOT estimating.
A principle is Immutable (at least within a domain). E.G. The principles of Risk Management or the Principles of thermodynamics, or the principles of compressible fluid flow over the wings of your A-7. Along with your practices comes some processes. For HOW those practices are put into practice.
A principle of estimating starts with the principles of Microeconomics of Decision making in the presence of uncertainty.
Your practices and the process that implement them are likely applicable across the board. But those practices are “informed” by the principles of Microeconomics, Managerial Finance, and Business Governance.
So here’s the unanswered question for those conjecturing No Estimates is applicable outside their personal anecdotal domain.
By what PRINCIPLE can you make a decision in the presence of uncertainty WITHOUT estimating. Let’s hear what NE has to say for that?
Perhaps a read of the materials in Section 6 will provide insight into the World View of those of us applying agile to Software Intensive System of Systems http://www.slideshare.net/galleman/agileevm-bibliography-v2
Your domain may be much different than the broader domains where governance is the basis of decision making. I’d suggest the practice and processes may also be different, but the Principles of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the impact of those decisions no matter the domain ‒ hence the Principle informs your practices and processes.
