Herding Cats

Book(s) of the Month

December is always a busy book month in our household. We have one PhD candidate and one Masters Graduate, both the sciences (one in molecular plant biology and the other in the behavior aspects neuroscience). So books are always great... Read more →

Cone of Uncertainty and Estimate to Complete and Estimate at Completion

In a recent twitter exchange, a formula was presented that goes like this, from the Original Post Rewriting this into algebra in LaTeX gives us Let's see if we can unpack the equation: The total uncertainty is the ratio of... Read more →

Quote of the Day

A few years' experience will convince us that those things which at the time they happened we regarded as our greatest misfortunes have proved our greatest blessings - George Mason, from Don Yaeger, Your Daily Dose of Greatness Don has... Read more →

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

There seems to still be confusion about what the Cone of Uncertainty means for some in the #NoEstimates community. I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from... Read more →

Quote of the Day

"If you have integrity, nothing else matters, If you don't have integrity, nothing else matters." - Senator Alan Simpson Quote from the Wallace Stegner award from the Center of the American West, December 6th, Boulder Colorado Related articles Architecture -Center... Read more →

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. Our topic is Increasing the Probability of Program... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Facts are disturbing When there is an unsubstantiated conjecture, and the facts are presented, those making the conjecture with an understanding that facts inform the conversation usually response with that's interesting what do you mean, I haven't heard that suggestion... Read more →

Fallacy of the Day

"On spec" is open loop control on value. Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the... Read more →

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of uncertainty during a project. The planned uncertainty not only needs to decrease over time passing, but this reduction diminishes any impacts of risk on the decision-making processes. Seems there is... Read more →

False Equivalence

False Equivalence is a logical fallacy where there appears to be a logical equivalence (usually in quantity and quality of evidence) between two opposing arguments, but when in fact there is one side has substantially higher quality and quantity of... Read more →