The concept of risk and risk assessments has a long history. More than 2,400 years ago the Athenians offered their capacity of assessing risks before making decisions. From the Pericle's Funeral Oration in Thurcydidas' ‘History of the Peloponnesian War’ (started in 431 BC), we can read: We Athenians in our persons, take our decisions on policy and submit them to proper discussion.
The worst thing is to rush into action before consequences have been properly debated. And this is another point where we differ from other people. We are capable at the same time of taking risks and assessing them beforehand.
Others are brave out of ignorance; and when they stop to think, they begin to fear.
But the man who can most truly be accounted brave is he who best knows the meaning of what is sweet in life, and what is terrible, and he then goes out undeterred to meet what is to come.
― in Terje Aven, Foundations of Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition
In order to assess the risk, created by uncertainty (reducible - Epistemic and irreducible - Aleatory), we MUST estimate. To NOT Estimate is to ignore this risk and ignore Pericle's advice - to rush into action before the consequences have been properly debated.
