Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

To say of what is that it is not, or of what is not that it is, is false, while to say of what is that it is and of what is not that it is not is true. --... Read more →

Quote of the Day

When several hypotheses are presented to our mind which we believe to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive, but about which we know nothing further, we distribute our belief equally among them .... This being admitted as an account of the... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The object of reasoning is to find out, from the consideration of what we already know, something else which we do not know. Consequently, reasoning is good if it be such as to give a true conclusion from true premises,... Read more →

Leadership Lessons

There is an article in the current edition of The New Yorker about a solitary journey across Antarctica, by Henry Worsley. I wrote a paper in 2005 for our Program Management Office, Project Managers at a large environmental remediation site,... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Analysis is an exercise in judgement under conditions of uncertainty, and the errors in judgment we make, singly, or in groupd, in a day, or through life, are countless. In organizational settings, especially in complicated, complex, or chaotic situations a... Read more →

The Open Mindedness and Logical Fallacy

Every once in awhile a reasonably intelligent No Estimates advocate shows up in a Twitter discussion. Although the poster is filled with logical fallacies, like cherry picking personal anecdotes, inversion of economic concept (focus on value, with no consideration for... Read more →

Monte Carlo Simulation

There was a tweet yesterday ... In casinos, the betting rules ensure the house wins (Eliminates Risk) over time This, of course, is not true, nor is it how casinos work. Let's start with a brief overview of Monte Carlo... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Project managers can't predict the future, but accurately gauging the degree of uncertainty inherent in their projects can help them quickly adapt to it. - "Managing Project Uncertainty," Arnoud De Meyer, Christoph Loch, and Micheal Pich, Sloan Management Review, Winter... Read more →

Quote of the Day

In the space of two days I had evolved two plans, wholly distinct, both of which were equally feasible. The point I am trying to bring out is that one does not plan and then try to make circumstances fit... Read more →

Aleatory Uncertainty Creates Irreducible Risk

Yesterday's Post Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk and What Is Risk? was a response to a tweeter post conjecturing Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated This, of course, is not factually true. Risk is... Read more →

Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk

Yesterday's Post What Is Risk? was a response to a tweeter post conjecturing Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated This, of course, is not factually true. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes... Read more →

What Is Risk?

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. Uncertainty is a state or condition that involves a deficiency of information and leads to inadequate or incomplete knowledge of understanding. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge... Read more →

Uncertainty creates Risk, Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty Requires Estimating

According to ISO 31000, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 a risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives and an effect is a positive or negative deviation from what is expected. This definition recognizes that all of us operate in... Read more →

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Here's an extract from "Chapter 8: Human Behavior and Complexity," Terry Cooke-Davies, in Aspects of Complexity: Managing Projects in a Complex World. Drawing Unsupported Conclusions from Incomplete and Inconclusive Data, it is not only natural but also laudable, to seek... Read more →

Coherent Design and Development Process

We're working on a white paper "Increasing the Probability of Program Success with Continuous Risk Management," for the Joint Space Cost Council, Scheduler's Forum. During our research, I found a paper "Management Disciplines: Harbingers of Successful Programs," David Acker, Defense... Read more →

Quote of the Day

I was thinking of my patients, and how the worst moment for them was when they discovered they were master of their own fate. It was not a matter of bad or good luck. When they could no longer blame... Read more →

From Strategy To Execution and Delivery

There always talk about Focus on Value. But that does that mean? What are the units of measure of Value? What does it Cost to deliver that Value? When will that Value be delivered? When is that Value Needed to... Read more →

18 Critical Success Factors for All Project Work

From "Key Success Drivers for Large High-Technology Projects: Prediction and Practice," Phil Crosby (CSIRO, Australia) in Management Science, Logistics, and Operations Research, John Wang. Their rankings and percentage impact on project success Project management (PM) control & execution systems in... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Most opinions are actually attitudes. If you're going to have an opinion, make it an informed opinion. One based on principles, and the resulting processes and practices that can be tested outside personal anecdotes. One based actual facts. Related articles... Read more →