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It’s an inescapable fact that the causation of seriously harmful events in project management and product development includes multiple missed opportunities for multiple ordinary people, organizations, and groups to have prevented the harm entirely or to have greatly reduced it... Read more →
Helicopter pilots from Vietnam War finally get their due with Arlington memorial... ‘To the men fighting the war, it was the sound of hope … to carry them out of hell!’... From Carlo Muñoz - The Washington Times - Wednesday,... Read more →
Uncertainty exists and cannot be reduced or eliminated in complex systems. Estimation only gives you a false sense of certainty that can only be validated when it is too late to react (e.g. Estimating Fallacy), i.e. After the Fact. This... Read more →
It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. — Fred Brooks, “The Mythical... Read more →
There's a popular phrase in some parts of the agile community that goes like this... We focus on value production, not delivery This willfully ignores the principle of all business decision making in the presence of uncertainty... Software development is... Read more →
There was a classic #Noestimates post this week that said ... Estimation locks down choices early through upfront t decision making, #NoEstimates preserves options. And attached the hashtag #RealOption A real option is a choice made available with business investment... Read more →
We tend to seek easy, single-factor explanations of success. For most important things, however, success requires avoiding the many separate causes of failure – Jared Diamond In order to avoid the causes of failure, we need to look into the... Read more →
A lion used to prowl about a field in which Four Oxen used to dwell. Many a time he tried to attack them, but whenever he came near they turned their tails to one another so that whichever way he... Read more →
It's a number. Just like the average speed on your sports tracker. You don't estimate it. You know it based on real data. Not some fuzzy ritual. This is yet another uninformed notion. The average is the calculated central value... Read more →
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