Uncertainty is the consequence of all complex systems. It is the lack of needed knowledge of the state of the system in the present or in the future that creates risk. [1], [2]
Adaptability, flexibility, and other systems “‒illities” are devoid of meaning in a deterministic world. [3]
In the non‒deterministic world, risk management is a critical success factor for increasing the probability of program success. [4]
Risk Never Occurs Without a Cause, that Cause is Uncertainty ‒ Risk is the Outcome of Uncertainty
Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. This is an immutable principle of probabilistic decision making, microeconomics, and managerial finance. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy
- Marle, F. and Vidal, L-A., “Project Risk Management Processes: Improving Coordination using a Clustering Approach,” Research in Engineering Design, Springer, 2011, pp. 189‒206.
- McManus, H. and Hastings, D., (2005), “A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty and its Mitigation and Exploitation in Complex Systems”, Fifteenth Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 10 – 15 July 2005.
- Rogers, J. L., Korte, J. J., and Bilardo, V. J., “Development of a Genetic Algorithm to Automate Clustering of a Dependency Structure Matrix,” NASA/TM‒2006‒212279, February 2006.
- Riesch, Hauke, “Levels of Uncertainty,” in Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk, Rosener, S. and Hillebrand R. Editors, Springer, 2011.
