I know not why I am so sad - Antonio, at the beginning of The Merchant of Venice
Our brains have been designed from evolution to make calculations about possible futures. This is called deciding. When this deciding takes place in the presence of uncertainty, we are not able to connect the causes found in the past with the effects that are possible in the future without estimating these possible connections between cause and effects [1]
When we hear that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty, this is a logical fallacy.
Decision Analysis provides ways to incorporate judgments about uncertainty into the evaluation of alternatives. Decision analysis is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner.
In project management and especially the software development project management domain, making decisions is always about making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty is always in place for the cost, schedule, and the technical attributes of any software project. In order to make decisions about future outcomes of a project subject to these uncertainties, we need to not only know how these three variables randomly interact, but also how they behave as standalone processes.
Don't fall prey the simple-minded statements like we're exploring ways to make decisions without estimates without asking the direct question - show me how that nonexistent description does not violate the principles of Decision Analysis and Microeconomics of software development decision making?
[1] Hunting Causes and Using Them: Approaches in Philosophy and Economics, Nancy Cartwright, Cambridge University Press, 2007
