Risk Management is Project Management for Adults

Tim Lister's quote is a universal principle for the success of any project, product, or program in the presence of uncertainty.

I'm finishing up the charts for a one day workshop at the Project and Program Management Symposium as well as one of the keynote talks and a streaming presentation.

The basis of risk management in our community starts with NASA's principles. Since assets and human life are at risk they have mature processes for managing risks in the presence of uncertainty - aleatory uncertainty (which is irreducible and requires margin to protect the outcomes) and epistemic uncertainty (which is reducible by direct actions). But this NASA framework is universally applicable in any other domain since uncertainty and the risk it produces doesn't know nor care about a domain. It's an Immutable Principle. 

All risk comes from uncertainty. Managing in the presence of Uncertainty requires making estimates. 

Here's where to find how NASA does this:

• Risk-Informed Decision Making, NASA/SP-2010-576
• Risk Management Handbook, NASA/SP-2011-3422
• NASA Procedural Requirements ‒ Technical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for Safety and Mission Success for NASA Programs and Projects, NPR 8505.5A
• Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision Making, NASA/TM-2015-218777
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, NASA/SP-2011-3421 Second Edition
• “A Study Of Uncertainty And Risk Management Practice Relative To Perceived Project Complexity,” A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Craig Michael Harvett, Bond University May 2013
• "Characterizing Uncertainty to Manage Risk in Spacecraft Development with Application to Structures and Mass," Emily Baker Clements, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2013.

So Now to the Punch Line

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• You cannot manage in the presence of uncertainty without making estimates (start with the materials above and do your own research). 
• Uncertainty creates risk.
• All projects operate in the presence of uncertainty and are subject to risk.
• Risk decreases the probability of project or product success.
• To manage in the presence of uncertainty we need to make estimates of the probability of occurrence of the Epistemic uncertainties that create Reducible risk and the Aleatory uncertainties that creates Irreducible risk.
• Both types of uncertainty and the resulting risk require us to make estimates.
• From Tim Lister's quote - "Risk management is how adults manage projects"
• Be on adult, learn to manage risk.
• Be an adult, learn to estimate so you can manage risk.
• Be an adult, ignore anyone and everyone who says estimates aren't needed:
  • Estimates are only not needed when there is ...
    • No Uncertainty
    • No risk from uncertainty
    • No deadlines in the presence of uncertainty
    • No not to exceed budget
    • No mandatory Features and Capabilities on a deadline date for the a not to exceed budget 
  • These conditions only exist on De Minimis projects - if you work on de minimis projects, estimates are likely a waste

There is no principle by which a credible decision can be made in the presence of uncertainties found on all project and product work without estimating the impact of that decision on the success of the outcomes of that work.