No sensible decision can be made without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it might be — Isaac Asimov
To make sensible decisions, in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible - we need to estimate the probability that the decision will be the right decision. The world as it will be requires estimating the future using a variety of means. From past data used to construct a reference class forecast to Monte Carlo Simulation (and similar) methods using a model of the future to assess the possible outcomes.
