No sensible decision can be made without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it might be— Isaac Asimov

To make sensible decisions, in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible - we need to estimate the probability that the decision will be the right decision. The *world as it will be* requires estimating the *future* using a variety of means. From past data used to construct a *reference class forecast* to Monte Carlo Simulation (and similar) methods using a *model of the future** *to assess the possible outcomes.