The #NoEstimates are right you can not Control projects.
All projects, no matter the domain, processes, or technology, operate in the presence of uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory).
The only thing that can take place is to
Manage in the Presence of These Uncertainties. These uncertanties can NOT be eliminated, but ONLY reduced (for Epistemic)
- Slicing doesn't reduce uncertainty, it just makes it into small chunks, that can be discovered faster.
- #NoEstimates most certainly doesn't reduce uncertainty, what #NoEstimates does is willfully ignore the uncertainties, so when the risk they produce turns into issues, it's a surprise.
- Testing reveals defects but does not reduce the aleatory uncertainties That's why they're called Irreducible.
Epistemic uncertainty and its risk can be handled with testing, verification, and validation, redundancy, and other knowledge acquisition processes. Epistemic uncertainty comes from lack of knowledge - Epistomonioligy is the study of knowledge.
Aleatory uncertainty and its risk cannot be reduced. Margin is needed to handle the risk from this uncertainty. Schedule margin, cost margin, technical margin.
Here's how we do this in our domain Increasing the Probability of Program Success with Continuous Risk Management
