All project work, agile or traditional, operates in the presence of uncertainty.
There are four fundamental root causes of Project or Program Failure, and their drivers that are addressed by Risk Management and the Estimating processes that go with them.
- Unrealistic performance expectations, with missing measures of effectiveness and measures of performance
- Unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models
- Inadequate assessment of risk and unmitigated exposure to these risks without proper handling plans
- Unanticipated technical issues without alternative plans and solutions to maintain the effectiveness of the product or service
None of these four fundament root causes of project failure can be addressed with Estimating the risks crated by the uncertanties found on the project
These uncertainties come in two forms
- Irreducible (Aleatory) - is uncertainty that comes from a random process. Flipping a coin and predicting either HEADS or TAILS is aleatory uncertainty. In other words, the uncertainty we are observing is random, it is part of the natural processes of what we are observing.
- Reducible (Epistemic) - is uncertainty that comes from the lack of knowledge. This lack of knowledge comes from many sources. Inadequate understanding of the underlying processes, incomplete knowledge of the phenomena, or imprecise evaluation of the related characteristics are common sources of epistemic uncertainty. In other words, we don't know how this thing works so there is uncertainty about its operation.
To Increase the Probability of Project Success, we need to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty. This means, of course, making estimates of the uncertainties, the risks they produce, the effectiveness of the risk handling processes, and the residual risk after the handling processes have been applied.
Here are some resources for increasing that success probability
- Both Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Create Risk
- Aleatory Uncertainty Creates Irreducible Risk
- Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk
- Increasing Probability of Project Success
- Increasing Probability of Project Success, With Continuous Risk Management
- Increasing the Probability of Success: Integrating Process, People, and Tools
- From WBS to Integrated Master Schedule
- Increasing the Probability of Program Succes Using Risk+
- Increasing the Probability of Program Success, using the Principles of Earned Value Management
Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister
Risk Management means making estimates of the Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties that create risk. Without making these estimates and developing handling strategies for the resulting risks, the project's probability of success is greatly reduced.Risk management means estimating, estimating is project management for adults
