Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

“The winning general is the one who can best act on imperfect information and half-formed theories.” – Napoleon Bonaparte All decisions in the presence of uncertainty require making estimates of the reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create risk. Knowing the... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The difference between failure and success is the difference between doing something almost right and doing something right - Benjamin Franklin Read more →

Quote of the Day (Ad Hominem)

Expose an Irrational Belief, keep a person rational for a day Expose Irrational Thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime Dr. Bo Bennett, in Logically Fallacious: The Ultimate Collection of 300 Logical Fallacies Some in the agile community, when... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Poets say science takes away from the beauty of the stars - mere globs of gas atoms. Nothing is "mere." I too can see the stars on a desert night, and feel them. But do I see less or more?... Read more →

Software Estimating Processes and the Fallacy of the Week

I'm continually building the bibliography for our Software Intensive Systems of Systems work activities and found in "A review of Agile Software Effort Estimation Methods" It lists Traditional Methods Expert Judgement Analogy Price-to-Win, Bottom-Up, and Top-Up Wideband Delphi Algorithmic methods... Read more →

Presentations from PGCS 2019

This was my second year at the Project and Program Symposium in Canberra Australia. This year's conference focused on the integration of Systems Engineering and Project and Program Performance Management. Here are my talks and a workshop and other papers... Read more →

Why IT and Software Development Projects Fail

IT and Software Development projects don't have a good track record of success. There are many sources for this claim, some credible, some not credible. The Standish Report(s) report statistics about project failure but have been widely debunked for their... Read more →

Quote of the Day

If we start with what we think is a valid number, we will tend to continue with that number. When in fact, we should speak only in terms of confidence intervals and probabilities of success - Sir Francis Bacon In... Read more →

Myth of the Undesirability of Hierarchy

You hear all the time how the hierarchy in our organizations is undesirable. If you read Jordan Peterson's 12 Rules for Life you will learn in Chapter 1 that hierarchy is an innate behavior we have inherited from Lobsters who... Read more →

The Saga Continues

In a recent post, the saga of No Estimates as a basis of spending other people's money continues. Let's start with the definition of No Estimates. Quit estimates cold turkey. Get some kind of first-stab working software into the customer's... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The Mastery of Risk distinguishes modern times from the past: By understanding and measuring risks and their consequences, modern humans no longer perceive the further as a whim of the Gods and thereby have been empowered to transform their world... Read more →

Function Points and Software Development Estimating

The ISO/IEC 141143-6:2012 Standard for functional size measurement Productivity Measurement of software projects. There are five functional size measurement methods in compliance with ISO/IEC standards. NESMA function points (ISO/IEC 24570) IFPUG function points (ISO/IEC 20926); COSMIC function points (ISO/IEC 19761)... Read more →

Darwinian Truth and Reality in Software Development Management

Jordan Peterson put forth the idea that “empirical” truth (e.g. the Earth is a sphere) is all well and good, but if that truth runs contrary to information that will allow you to spread your genes then it stops being... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Our conventional modernization programs seek a 99% solution in years. Stability and counterinsurgency missions - the wars we are in - requires 75% solutions in months. The challenge is whether in our bureaucracy and in our minds these two different... Read more →

Return of the Swamp Monster (Standish Report)

Some #Noestimates advocates are heard quoting the Standish Report, reporting the non-data date that 60% of IT projects fail and of course that NOT ESTIMATING would have somehow, by some means, through some magical force has saved these projects. And... Read more →

Project and Program Management Symposium

I've spoken twice at the PGCS, in Canberra Australia. And I'm returning in 2020. There is now a web site with all the presentations and Master Classes for this conference. Here's the link to the Library of these materials. The... Read more →

Project Management + Systems Engineering = Increased Probability of Project Success

My workshop for the Project and Program Management Symposium in Canberra this August on the topic of integrating Systems Engineering and Project Management is now complete. The charts are available to the attendees and available here Projects delivered in complex... Read more →

Why Would You NEVER Apply Agile Software Development Processes?

In 2018, the notion of Agile Software Development has become the norm where we work. Here's a small sample of the guidance Update 2016: Considerations for Using Agile in DOD Acquisition Handbook for Implementing Agile in Department of Defense Information... Read more →

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

There's been a rash of conjectures about all kinds of bad business, project, and software development (agile and traditional) management ideas of late. Time to update the Don't Do Stupid Things on Purpose (DDSTOP) post. “There’s nothing more dangerous than... Read more →

Research Sites

When you encounter any suggestion, any conjecture, any claim that goes beyond yea that makes sense, check out the statement with some searching. Especially when you come across the unsubstantiated claims of #NoEstimates advocates. You can use Google of course.... Read more →