Let's start with some classes of projects. Here's a chart like to use because it covers most of the classes of project's I've worked over my career from simple family gardening to the International Space Station. Each of these projects has some need to estimate the cost to complete, the expected completion date of when those paying for the project can start reaping the benefits, to the probabilities that all the needed features of the project will be delivered at the expected time for the expected cost.
Now if you're an advocate of No Estimates, and believe that estimates are not needed, then ask your self of those paying you for your work share that belief? If they do, stop reading, and count yourself among the very few on the planet NOT subject to the principles of Microeconomics of probabilistic decision-making (going back to the 1971 paper "Probabilistic microeconomics," John McCall, Bell Journal of Economics and Management, Volume 2, Number 2, pp. 403-433).
So let's look at some ways to determine what types of estimates are needed, the fidelity of those estimates, and the usefulness of those estimates. Remembering that estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. No uncertainty? No need to make decisions? No impact from Not Estimating, then please Don't Waste Time and Effort estimates, just start spending other people's money
- What situations are suitable for different approaches to estimating?
- What goes it making a credible estimate?
- How do parametrics fit into the estimating process?
- How does Simulation fit into the estimating process?
- What are the drivers of the credibility of the estimate?
- How are estimates misused and what to do about it?
In the next post, I'll go to the next step of the needed framework for making credible estimates for any software system, using any development method. We must remember that the development of software is not the same as the management of the development of software.
Those applying Scrum, XP, #NoEstimates, or any other development framework are NOT the owners of the Money. Any credible governance-based organization does not let those spending the money tell those providing the money, how to spend it.
Those owning the Money have the fiduciary accountability to spend that money wisely, to produce the planned value, at the planned time, for the planned cost