If we start with what we think is a valid number, we will tend to continue with that number. When in fact, we should speak only in terms of confidence intervals and probabilities of success - Sir Francis Bacon
In 1979, Tversky and Kahneman proposed an alternative the Utility Theory, the Prospect Theory, that asserts that people make predictably irrational decisions.
The way that a choice of decisions is presented can sway a person to choose the less rational decision from a set of options. Once a problem is clearly and reasonably presented, rarely does a person think outside the bounds of the frame.
Resources:
- "The Cause of Risk-Taking by Project Managers," Proceedings of the Project Management Insititute Annual Seminars and Symposium, November 1-10, 2001.
- The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Science, 211, Jan 30, 1981, pp. 453-458
