I would hardly think today of making my first flight on a strange machine in a 27-mile wind . . . I look with amazement upon our audacity in attempting flights with a new and untried machine under such circumstances. Yet faith in our calculations and the design of the first machine, based upon our tables of air pressures, secured by months of careful laboratory work, and confidence in our system of control … had convinced us that the machine was capable of lifting and maintaining itself in the air
— Orville Wright, from “How We Made the First Flight”
No project success can be achieved without a Quantitative assessment of the risk. This assessment requires making a risk model informed by estimates of the probability of occurrence for risk created by Epistemic uncertainty and the assessments of the stochastic processes for the behaviors of the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the deliverables.
