An individual who is observed to be inconstant to his plans, or perhaps to carry on his affairs without any plan at all, is marked at once.
By all prudent people, as a speedy victim to his own unsteadiness and folly.
‒ Alexander Hamilton Federalist Papers
To create credible plans, in the presence of uncertainties ― reducible (epistemic) and irreducible (aleatory) ― requires making estimates of the degree of uncertainty created by statistical or probabilistic processes, the discovery of the root causes of the uncertainty, the impact of uncertainty on the probability of success, the probability of the effectiveness of corrective and preventive actions to deal with the uncertainty, the probability of success after those corrective and preventive actions have been applied.
Just as a reminder
