- Poor initial requirements definition ― failure to start with Capabilities and only then deriving the requirements. These Capabilities are assessed in Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance
- Poor performance and cost trade-offs during development ― with the Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance for each Capability, measuring current performance against planned performance cannot take place. This is an Open Loop process when successful project controls are Closed Loop.
- Changes in quantity requirements ― Like Effectiveness and Performance, Quality requires measures to established a close loop control system
- Errors due to the limitation in estimating procedures ― all projects operate in the presence of uncertainty that comes in two forms ― Epistemic and Aleatory. To make credible decisions with spending other people's money in the presence of uncertainty, estimates must be made.
- Failure to fund projects at the most likely cost ― the most likely cost of the project comes from risk-informed assessments of cost and schedule for the work to be performed and the materials needed to deliver the capabilities. Estimates of these resources as the basis of the most likely cost, with the variances needed to assure high confidence those resources are allocated properly
- Failure to understand and account for technical risks ― technical performance risk is derived from the system models of the delivered capabilities. Like cost and schedule, these models must show the possible range of technical performance so the design can address the performance needs
- Failure to discover and reduce uncertainties early enough to have corrections and prevention be effective ― risk management is how adults manage projects ― Tim Lister. All risk comes from uncertainty. Managing in the presence of uncertainty is how adults manage projects. Uncertainty by itself can not be managed it can only be handled.
- Overly detailed plans at a time when details cannot be known ― the resolution of the plan is dependent on the understanding of the details of cost, schedule, and technical performance requirements.
- Poor inflation estimates ― forward pricing models must represent the reality of the marketplace
- Plans that ignore uncertainty that creates risk ― uncertainty is always present creating risk. Risk cannot be ignored
- Team dynamics not focused on delivering needed capabilities as planned - a team is ...a small group of people with complementary skills who are committed to a common purpose, performance goals, and approach for which they are mutually accountable - Katzenbach, J. R. and Smith, D.K. (1993), The Wisdom of Teams: Creating the High-performance Organisation, Harvard Business School, Boston
- Top-down pressure to reduce estimates ― this is bad management. Risk informed data-driven decision at all levels of the project are needed for success
- Lack of valid independent cost estimates ― Independent Cost Estimating (ICE) is an independent assessment of what is expected tor the cost of goods or services, based on reliable sources, from historical prices, industry-standard, or market surveys.
- Lack of qualified project management expertise ― without qualified staff, the probability of project success is low.
- Mismanagement and human error ― this is called Doing Stupid Things on Purpose.
- Over-optimism of cost, schedule, and/or technical performance ― risk-informed decision making is mandatory for project success.
- Schedule concurrency ― multitasking, doing unplanned work in parallel means rework. Plan the Work, Work the Plan.
- Project stretch outs to keep staff and processes open and billing ― time is money, someone has to pay for the extension of the work.
- Funding instabilities cause by trying to fund too many projects ― commitments for funding are needed for all work or procurement ti be successful.
- Funding instabilities caused by management decisions or indecisions ― changing the fund commitments disrupts the flow of value delivery.
- Inefficient production rates due to stretched out projects ― efficacy of production is a critical success factor for project success
- Failure to fund management reserves and schedule margins ― management reserve and schedule margin are both needed in the presence of uncertainty.
- Unrealistic performance expectations ― defined Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) are measured on fine-grained boundaries to assure the delivered Capabilities are meeting the plan.
- Unrealistic baseline estimates for cost, schedule, and technical performance ―risk models used to state the confidence of on or before the delivery date, at or below a cost estimate, and compliance with the Technical Performance Measures.
- Immature technologies or excessive manufacturing or integration risk ― Technology Readiness Levels used to assess the maturity of the products or services.
- Unanticipated design, engineering, manufacturing, or technology integration issues ―risk management is a forward-looking assessment of the future. Hope is an undiscovered disappointment.
- Changes in procurement quantities ―all change requires and risk assessment of the impact of the change.
- Inadequate project funding or funding instability ―insufficient fund commitment of funding instability is an unaddressed risk to success
- Poor performance by project or contractor personnel ― all poor performance is an unaddressed risk.
In each case, estimates are needed to make informed decisions about the risk the desired outcomes cannot be met, and assess the needed corrective or preventive actions created by the uncertanties in cost, schedule, technical, and personnel performance that reduce the probability of project success.
† "A Cure for Unanticipated Cost and Schedule Growth," Thomas J. Coonce and Glen B. Alleman, ICEAA, 2014 Professional Development & Training Workshop, June 10-13, Denver, Colorado.
