We all know - or hopefully, we all know - that correlation is not causation. Pearl's book (click on the book cover) speaks to the issue of cause and effect
When we observe, especially in the project management domain, we need to start first with what is the cause of what we see.
This is the foundation of root cause analysis. The principle that NO fix to any problem we observe will be successful until we find the cause of that problem.
The cause has two elements.
(1) The conditions that create the cause.
(2) The actions taken in the presence of the conditions that create the cause.
Remove the condition and/or the action and the cause will be prevented from affecting the project.
The key learning of this book is how the separate fact from fiction - a much-needed skill in 2020, 2021, and beyond. The simple word for this is causal inference.
- What is the cause of global warming?
- How can we recognize global warming is caused by anthropomorphic actions?
In our project management world,
- What was the cause of us going over budget?
- What was the cause of the failure of the product when it was placed into service?
Lucky is he who has been able to understand the cause of things - Virgil 29 BC
Here's is a collection of Pearl's papers on topics discusses in the book.
