Increasing the Probability of Program Succes

Cost and schedule growth for any project or program is created when there are:

1. Unrealistic technical performance expectations,
2. Unrealistic cost and schedule estimates,
3. Inadequate risk assessments, and
4. Unanticipated technical issues,

all based on poorly performed and ineffective risk management. Each of these primary causes contributes to the program’s technical and programmatic shortfalls. The table below shows the causes and their contributing factors that reduce the probability of program success, documented in a wide range of sources.

The Root Causes of cost and schedule growth and technical shortfalls, start with:

1. Not adequately specifying what Done looks like, in Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance for the outcomes prior to starting project work, 
2. Not quantifying the reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create risk impacting the probability of success of the program, and
3. Failing to manage risks, created by the uncertainties to the Measures of Performance associated with each Measure of Effectiveness during execution of the program.

Research shows the Primary Causes of project failure, from the table above, each with their contributing factors, must be addressed, corrected, and prevented to increase the probability of success.

These corrective and preventive actions start with Five Immutable Principles [1]. These principles enable the management of the program in units of measure meaningful to the decision-makers.

1. What does Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision-makers?
2. What is the Plan and Schedule to reach Done with the needed Capabilities, at the needed time, for the needed cost?
3. What time, money, and resources are needed to reach Done, and in what period are they needed?
4. What impediments need to be discovered on the way to Done and their corrective or preventive actions?
5. What Units Of Measure are needed to credibly describe how progress is being made toward Done?

For any organization ‒ commercial or government ‒ these five principles must be the foundation of the corrective and preventive actions for each contributing factor that lowers the probability of program success.

The demonstrated root cause(s) and their symptoms include:

• Overestimating technology readiness,
• Underfunding the procurement of systems,
• Underestimating potential problems,
• Inadequate risk management at program initiation and throughout its lifecycle,
• Use of unsubstantiated cost estimates,
• Unaddressed technical problems,
• Operating with reduced manpower and functional expertise in the program office,
• Overestimating cost savings for insertion of COTS hardware and software, and
• Operating in an environment that blurs the traditional roles of independent cost, schedule, technical, and contract performance assessment.

One Critical Success Factor for increasing the probability of program success is integrating the data and processes used by the program controls and engineering staff to track, and manage technical and programmatic performance, along with the technical and programmatic risks to that performance. 

Only by integrating Systems Engineering, Technical and Operational Engineering, and the Programmatic and Technical Performance Management processes into an Integrated Program Performance Management System (IPPMS), can we start on the road to increasing the probability of success for its efforts.

[1] These Five Immutable Principles can be found in Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success, Glen B. Alleman, American Management Association, 2014.