Herding Cats

Capabilities Based Planning

Over the years, the success rate of traditional project management methods applied to software development projects has been underwhelming. These traditional methods are based on a retrospective approach that measures variance against plan rather than providing a performance–forecast that can... Read more →

What Do We Mean by Risk and Uncertainty?

Risk and Uncertainty are an integral part of all decision-making processes for non-trivial work. The decision-making process involves a set of actions and outcomes, each of which associated with them a probability or a statistical process. All risk comes from... Read more →

Quote of the Day

“The winning general is the one who can best act on imperfect information and half-formed theories.” – Napoleon Bonaparte All decisions in the presence of uncertainty require making estimates of the reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create risk. Knowing the... Read more →

Software Estimating Processes and the Fallacy of the Week

I'm continually building the bibliography for our Software Intensive Systems of Systems work activities and found in "A review of Agile Software Effort Estimation Methods" It lists Traditional Methods Expert Judgement Analogy Price-to-Win, Bottom-Up, and Top-Up Wideband Delphi Algorithmic methods... Read more →

Presentations from PGCS 2019

This was my second year at the Project and Program Symposium in Canberra Australia. This year's conference focused on the integration of Systems Engineering and Project and Program Performance Management. Here are my talks and a workshop and other papers... Read more →

Quote of the Day

If we start with what we think is a valid number, we will tend to continue with that number. When in fact, we should speak only in terms of confidence intervals and probabilities of success - Sir Francis Bacon In... Read more →

Function Points and Software Development Estimating

The ISO/IEC 141143-6:2012 Standard for functional size measurement Productivity Measurement of software projects. There are five functional size measurement methods in compliance with ISO/IEC standards. NESMA function points (ISO/IEC 24570) IFPUG function points (ISO/IEC 20926); COSMIC function points (ISO/IEC 19761)... Read more →

Why Would You NEVER Apply Agile Software Development Processes?

In 2018, the notion of Agile Software Development has become the norm where we work. Here's a small sample of the guidance Update 2016: Considerations for Using Agile in DOD Acquisition Handbook for Implementing Agile in Department of Defense Information... Read more →

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

There's been a rash of conjectures about all kinds of bad business, project, and software development (agile and traditional) management ideas of late. Time to update the Don't Do Stupid Things on Purpose (DDSTOP) post. “There’s nothing more dangerous than... Read more →

Non-Ergodic Behaviour of Projects

In a previous post Why Johnny Can't Do The Math, the suggestion that estimates are non-ergodic is a Category error. It's the underlying processes that are ergodic or non-ergodic, not the estimates of that process. In this case, the project... Read more →

How To Produce and Covey Credible Software Development Estimates

Let's start with some classes of projects. Here's a chart like to use because it covers most of the classes of project's I've worked over my career from simple family gardening to the International Space Station. Each of these projects... Read more →

Start with the End in Mind

The notion - a fallacious notion - that done will emerge, is common in some circles of Agile and especially those agile advocates proferring No Estimates. The Greeks and Romans had a good understanding of most things we take for... Read more →

You Can Not "Control" Projects

The #NoEstimates are right you can not Control projects. All projects, no matter the domain, processes, or technology, operate in the presence of uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory). The only thing that can take place is to Manage... Read more →

Value Theory for Projects and Estimating

No Value can be determined without knowing something about the cost to produce that Value and the Time that Value will be arriving. † In the presence of uncertainty, this knowing must be estimated to some acceptable level of confidence.... Read more →

Quote of the Day

“Anyone who expects a quick and easy solution to the multifaceted problem of resource estimation is going to be disappointed.” 1968, Alfred M. Pietrasanta at IBM System Research Institute Read more →

Predicting the Unpredictable (A Book Review)

I came to this book with an anticipation of a coherent discussion of estimating on modern software development projects. The subtitle is Pragmatic Approached to Estimating Project Schedule and Cost, says I'd find practical advice on how to estimate software... Read more →

Phrases Used for Technical Performance Measures

All project progress is measured independent of resources expended - Mr. Gary Bliss, Director Performance Assessment and Root Cause Analysis (PARCA), US Department of Defense The phrases used here are the results of research conducted on behalf of PARCA. No... Read more →

What Are Story Points and How Can They Be Used on Agile Projects?

The development of software, using other peoples money (OPM) means - or should mean - that those providing the money have an expectation to know How Much Money, along with When well you be done spending that money and provide... Read more →

A Compendium of Estimating Resources

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems and their related hardware and work processes when applying traditional and agile product development methods. These Papers, Books, and Thesis and other resources - for the most... Read more →

Podcast Interview

On a recent flight, I met Rory Rowland. Rory is in the Missouri House of Representative, a former CEO of a Credit Union, and a consultant and author. We started talking as well traveled travelers do, sharing backgrounds and current... Read more →