Argument from Ignorance (Ad Ignorantium) - the assumption of a conclusion or fact-based primarily on lack of evidence to the contrary. Usually best described by, "absence of evidence of not evidence of absence" from Logically Fallacious: The Ultimate Collection of... Read more →
Uncertainty exists and cannot be reduced or eliminated in complex systems. Estimation only gives you a false sense of certainty that can only be validated when it is too late to react (e.g. Estimating Fallacy), i.e. After the Fact. This... Read more →
There's a popular phrase in some parts of the agile community that goes like this... We focus on value production, not delivery This willfully ignores the principle of all business decision making in the presence of uncertainty... Software development is... Read more →
There was a classic #Noestimates post this week that said ... Estimation locks down choices early through upfront t decision making, #NoEstimates preserves options. And attached the hashtag #RealOption A real option is a choice made available with business investment... Read more →
It's a number. Just like the average speed on your sports tracker. You don't estimate it. You know it based on real data. Not some fuzzy ritual. This is yet another uninformed notion. The average is the calculated central value... Read more →
This is a quote from Twitter today that says Various projective practices upon trending have been used to forecast progress ... These have proven useful. However, these do not replace the importance of empiricism. In complex environments, what will happen... Read more →
Some acquisition policies express a strong preference for fixed-price contracts in contracting. Firm-fixed-price contracts are depicted as existing on the extreme left of the continuum of risk. As we progress through the various fixed-price flavors and into cost-type contracts, the... Read more →
Every once in awhile a reasonably intelligent No Estimates advocate shows up in a Twitter discussion. Although the poster is filled with logical fallacies, like cherry picking personal anecdotes, inversion of economic concept (focus on value, with no consideration for... Read more →
According to ISO 31000, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 a risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives and an effect is a positive or negative deviation from what is expected. This definition recognizes that all of us operate in... Read more →
Here's an extract from "Chapter 8: Human Behavior and Complexity," Terry Cooke-Davies, in Aspects of Complexity: Managing Projects in a Complex World. Drawing Unsupported Conclusions from Incomplete and Inconclusive Data, it is not only natural but also laudable, to seek... Read more →
When you use a technology term to describe a customer value you've lost the customer. And you've made 1000 assumptions without knowing! Without a domain and context, this statement has no meaning. Let's say we use a technical term like... Read more →
Five Different Decision-Making Strategies That Don't Need Estimates This is a quote from a #Noestimates presentation. Remember, all projects operate in the presence of Uncertainty. If not, it's either a de minimus project, buying things from a catelog, and assemblying... Read more →
NoEstimates (is) An Unconventional Approach That Finally Solves The "Deliver On Time!" Problem Let's deconstruct this conjecture. All project work operates in the presence of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty, in which there is a probability that something will happen in the... Read more →
Instead of estimating User Stories, ask: how might we change this story so that we deliver working software tomorrow? While delivering working software daily is good development practice - what does it mean deliver? Can the customer accept working software... Read more →
Estimation is pretentious rationalism, where rationalism does not serve us well (extremistan)(sic) Take only risks you can survive. Pretentious rationalism is defined as a type of ultimate explanation—announced at one time as final truth—which is termed a system. This is... Read more →
One of the core concepts of #NoEstimates. Probability is input to decision making. Even a small probability of being late must drive the decision to cut scope. In the absence of a software development context, this statement has some merit.... Read more →
Understand one thing before jumping into #NoEstimates debate: product and software development for *real* use is a DISCOVERY problem, not a delivery problem. Estimation focus on delivery, not DISCOVERY To discover anything we need to pay for that discovery. How... Read more →
"On spec" is open loop control on value. Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the... Read more →
Requirements, as traditionally used, are a separation tool. To separate the "thinkers" from the "doers". In software this is a HUGE mistake! This conjecture is a fallacy. The purpose of requirements elicitation, use, and implementation of the requirement that result... Read more →
#NoEstimates advocates are on a Snipe hunt that will allow them to spend their customers money without having to tell that customer - with some level of confidence - how much money will be needed and how much will likely... Read more →
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