Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary a qualification for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. – Samuel Wilkes, 1951, paraphrasing H. G. Wells from Mankind in the Making
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All project work operates in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in two forms on projects and product development. Reducible uncertainty (Epistemic) and Irreducible uncertainty (Aleatory). There is a 3rd kind of uncertainty - Ontological - which is unknowable -...
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This page is dedicated to the resources of the mathematics needed to successfully manage software-intensive systems and their related hardware and work processes when applying traditional and agile product development methods. These Books, Papers, and Thesis and other resources -...
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The theory of probability is at the bottom, nothing but common sense reduced to calculus. Pierre de Laplace, Theorie Analytique de Probabilitesy introduction, 1812-20
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Materials used to increase the probability of project success in the presence of uncertainty, with Capabilities needed for a defined cost on a defined date. Briefings, Papers, and Presentations are publications developed for clients, journals, books, and book chapters, and...
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There's been a rash of conjectures about all kinds of bad business, project, and software development (agile and traditional) management ideas of late. Time to update the Don't Do Stupid Things on Purpose (DDSTOP) post. “There’s nothing more dangerous than...
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In a previous post Why Johnny Can't Do The Math, the suggestion that estimates are non-ergodic is a Category error. It's the underlying processes that are ergodic or non-ergodic, not the estimates of that process. In this case, the project...
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Understanding First Principles is the basis of all understanding - Dr. Kaye Remington, PGCS, Canberra Australia, 14 August 2018 Without first principles, immutable first principles actually, any suggested improvement of anything is just wishful thinking uninformed by any governance, boundary...
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A previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate, mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating...
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By concentrating on what, and leaving out why, mathematics is reduced to an empty shell. The art is not in the “truth” but in the explanation, the argument. It is the argument itself which gives the truth its context, and...
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There's a notion going around that ... “I don’t believe you can make a model of a possible future.” This ignores the principles of predictive analytics, and the direct management actions taken to produce outcomes from those analytical models found...
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No sensible decision can be made without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it might be — Isaac Asimov To make sensible decisions, in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible...
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This is a new Category on Herding Cats that comes from my finishing of the book Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics, Gary Smith. Of late I've encountered many people on the web...
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Observational studies are inherently challenging because of the potential for self-selection bias and confounding factors. Always be wary of studies the use the data to discover the theory. - Standardd Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie...
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Provocative assertions are provactive precisely because they are counterintuitive - which is a very good reason for skepticism. When you hear such an assertation, don't be easily persuaded that you are wrong. It may well be that the provocative assertation...
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Estimation is part of project management. The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. And remember you're High School Economics class - The Value of something cannot be determined alone, you need to know...
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When we encounter engineering problems that are beyond the de minimis category, they usually involve some form of mathematics. Probability, Statistics, Measurements, Calculus and the like. Here's a collection of downloadable books that can be the resources needed to address...
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