Herding Cats

How to Think Like a Rocket Scientist

A book in my library The Seven Secrets of How to Think Like a Rocket Scientist rings true in our time of SAR-COV-2 pandemic when I encounter not only blatant science deniers, along with the climate deniers but just the... Read more →

Agile Development Processes? Pick Your Domain First

The use of Agile Processes in many software domains is straight forward. Start with some notion of what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision-makers, start developing Features, get feedback from the Users, iterate on the... Read more →

Quote of the Day

You can't run a credible business or your own household without knowing your basis of cost and the cost demand in the future. In the presence of reducible and irreducible uncertainties, that cost basis and the value produced or acquired... Read more →

The False Logic of No Estimates

There are a lot of logical fallacies in today's software development world. Good logic it seems is hard to come by. Here's two simple known-to-work logic principles Modus ponens - If A is true, then B is true. When A... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin When claims are made in the absence of the knowledge of principles and instead only from personal anecdotes in the absence of principles and knowledge, Darwin’s quote becomes applicable.... Read more →

Word of the Day

Authoritative Reference When writing or speaking about anything (beyond norma chit chat or uninformed opinion) authoritative reference citations are essential. The references give the reader confidence that you have done your homework in preparing your work, they show how your... Read more →

Quote of the Day

All risk comes from uncertainty, reducible, and irreducible. Making any credible decision in the presence of uncertainty requires making an estimate of the probability of success of that decision on the project Risk Management is Project Management for Adults -... Read more →

Quote of the Day - Ignoring Reality Doesn't Make It Go Away

We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of reality - Ayn Rand There are several realities in our complex software-intensive system of systems All risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainties come in two forms that can be handled... Read more →

Aleatory Uncertainty Versus Epistemic Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Making - The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

It is a common mistake, performed by many in the No Estimates community, to fail to understand that all risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in only two forms: Epistemic uncertainty - is the lack of knowledge or information in... Read more →

Summary of No Estimates Posts

After a contentious exchange on twitter about a contentious topic of managing complex adaptive systems - the other side of the exchange doesn't actually MANAGE Complex Systems - he just talks about non-actionable outcomes aspect of his theory of how... Read more →

Compendium of Debunking #NoEstimating Conjectures and Fallacies

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without... Read more →