Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

That is not only not right; it is not even wrong Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig; es ist nicht einmal falsch! Wolfgang Pauli Read more →

#NoEstimates is Open Loop Control

Here's a summary of why Project Management, Risk Management, Estimating, Root Cause Analysis and other project management processes are a Closed Loop Control System Let's start with what is Closed Loop Control To successfully complete a project that meets established... Read more →

Quote of the Day

When logic fails, the argument turns to slander - Socrates Read more →

Quote of the Day

The probable is what usually happens. —Aristotle It is a truth very certain that when it is not in our power to determine. what is true we ought to follow what is most probable —Descartes, “Discourse on Method” It is... Read more →

Quote of the Day

We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new... Read more →

Another Fallacy of the Week - #NoEstimates

You can make an estimate - one that is better than chance would produce - of how many children have been born into a Dutch or Danish family by counting the storks' nests on the roof of their house. In... Read more →

Quote of the Day

If the facts (evidence) are against you, argue the law (principle). If the law (principle) is against you, argue the facts (evidence). If the law (principle) and the facts (evidence) are against you, pound the table and yell like hell... Read more →

Quote of the Day

A Dull Knife is Far More Dangerous Than a Sharp One Read more →

What Do We Mean by Risk and Uncertainty?

Risk and Uncertainty are an integral part of all decision-making processes for non-trivial work. The decision-making process involves a set of actions and outcomes, each of which associated with them a probability or a statistical process. All risk comes from... Read more →

The Conscious Competence Learning Model

The Conscious Competence Learning Model has four stages. Each learner must pass through each stage to progress from incompetence to competence. This model is useful in understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect. The four stages of competence are: [1] Unconscious incompetence. The... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The most unsuccessful three years in the education of cost estimators appears to be fifth-grade arithmetic - Norman R. Augustine, Law VIII Read more →

Book of the Month

The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters, Tom Nichols. From the dust jacket - Thanks to technological advances and increasing levels of education we have access to more information than ever before. Yet rather... Read more →

Quote of the Day

“The winning general is the one who can best act on imperfect information and half-formed theories.” – Napoleon Bonaparte All decisions in the presence of uncertainty require making estimates of the reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create risk. Knowing the... Read more →

Quote of the Day (Ad Hominem)

Expose an Irrational Belief, keep a person rational for a day Expose Irrational Thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime Dr. Bo Bennett, in Logically Fallacious: The Ultimate Collection of 300 Logical Fallacies Some in the agile community, when... Read more →

Software Estimating Processes and the Fallacy of the Week

I'm continually building the bibliography for our Software Intensive Systems of Systems work activities and found in "A review of Agile Software Effort Estimation Methods" It lists Traditional Methods Expert Judgement Analogy Price-to-Win, Bottom-Up, and Top-Up Wideband Delphi Algorithmic methods... Read more →

Quote of the Day

If we start with what we think is a valid number, we will tend to continue with that number. When in fact, we should speak only in terms of confidence intervals and probabilities of success - Sir Francis Bacon In... Read more →

The Saga Continues

In a recent post, the saga of No Estimates as a basis of spending other people's money continues. Let's start with the definition of No Estimates. Quit estimates cold turkey. Get some kind of first-stab working software into the customer's... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The Mastery of Risk distinguishes modern times from the past: By understanding and measuring risks and their consequences, modern humans no longer perceive the further as a whim of the Gods and thereby have been empowered to transform their world... Read more →

Darwinian Truth and Reality in Software Development Management

Jordan Peterson put forth the idea that “empirical” truth (e.g. the Earth is a sphere) is all well and good, but if that truth runs contrary to information that will allow you to spread your genes then it stops being... Read more →

Return of the Swamp Monster (Standish Report)

Some #Noestimates advocates are heard quoting the Standish Report, reporting the non-data date that 60% of IT projects fail and of course that NOT ESTIMATING would have somehow, by some means, through some magical force has saved these projects. And... Read more →