Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

Comment is free, but facts are sacred. -- C.P. Scott, editor of the Manchester Guardian, 1921 When you hear claims by anyone about any topic, ask for the data to support that claim. If it's an anecdote, that data is... Read more →

Quote of the Day

All risk comes from uncertainty, reducible, and irreducible. Making any credible decision in the presence of uncertainty requires making an estimate of the probability of success of that decision on the project Risk Management is Project Management for Adults -... Read more →

Word of the Day

Willful Ignorance Noun (uncountable)(idiomatic, law) A decision in bad faith to avoid, becoming informed about something so as to having to make undesirable decisions that such information might prompt Read more →

Quote of the Day - Ignoring Reality Doesn't Make It Go Away

We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of reality - Ayn Rand There are several realities in our complex software-intensive system of systems All risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainties come in two forms that can be handled... Read more →

Quote of the Day

There is nothing so stupid as the educated man if you get him off the thing he was educated in - Will Rogers We all have experienced such a person. This brings me back to another quote from a retired... Read more →

Aleatory Uncertainty Versus Epistemic Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Making - The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

It is a common mistake, performed by many in the No Estimates community, to fail to understand that all risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in only two forms: Epistemic uncertainty - is the lack of knowledge or information in... Read more →

Quote of the Day

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid - Benjamin Franklin Read more →

Quote of the Day

There's an old legal aphorism that goes, If you have the Facts on your side, Pound the Facts. If you have the Law on your side, Pound the Law (or Principles). If you have neither Facts nor Law (or Principles)... Read more →

Ignorance Versus "Willful Ignorance"

In a recent exchange on Twitter, I was called Ignorant for failing to understand a concept held by a self-proclaimed thought leader on the topic. Here in the US When you call someone ignorant, it's usually during, as some have... Read more →

Quote of the Day

At what level of risk are you willing to NOT know the probability of completing on or before a date, at or below a cost, with the needed capabilities? Without estimates, in the presence of uncertainty, there can be no... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Understanding first principles is the basis of all understanding - Dr. Kaye Remington, PGCS, Canberra, Australia, August 14, 2018 Kaye goes on to say - The problem comes first, then information and knowledge is developed to reveal the attributes of... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Here's some quotes from Damon Hancock, Samsung Australia, speaking about the challenge of big infrastructure at PGCS 2018 Pick your partner well. Bad partners bring bad fortune. Some uncomfortable conversations today will save much pain later. Context drives behaviour. Inadequate... Read more →

Thought of the Day

The notion that Agile Development can be successful without Project Planning and Controls is only true when the project is de minimis. A de minimis project, means any variance in the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the deliverables has... Read more →

Thought for the Day - Estimates Are Mandatory in Presence of Uncertainty

No Estimates advocates claim you can manage a software development effort without estimating the cost, schedule or technical performance needed to show up with the needed capabilities, for the needed cost at the needed time to deliver the needed value... Read more →

How Projects Go Bad - No Matter the Domain, Method, or Tool

Project failure is not only common, it's predictable. The root causes of Project Failure are well documented and corrective and preventive actions are also well known. Let's start with the four primary root causes of project failure. ‡ Unrealistic Performance... Read more →

Summary of No Estimates Posts

After a contentious exchange on twitter about a contentious topic of managing complex adaptive systems - the other side of the exchange doesn't actually MANAGE Complex Systems - he just talks about non-actionable outcomes aspect of his theory of how... Read more →

Compendium of Resources

Materials used to increase the probability of project success in the presence of uncertainty, with Capabilities needed for a defined cost on a defined date. Briefings, Papers, and Presentations are publications developed for clients, journals, books, and book chapters, and... Read more →

Quote of the Day

That is not only not right; it is not even wrong Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig; es ist nicht einmal falsch! Wolfgang Pauli Read more →

#NoEstimates is Open Loop Control

Here's a summary of why Project Management, Risk Management, Estimating, Root Cause Analysis and other project management processes are a Closed Loop Control System Let's start with what is Closed Loop Control To successfully complete a project that meets established... Read more →

Quote of the Day

When logic fails, the argument turns to slander - Socrates Read more →