Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

At what level of risk are you willing to NOT know the probability of completing on or before a date, at or below a cost, with the needed capabilities? Without estimates, in the presence of uncertainty, there can be no... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Understanding first principles is the basis of all understanding - Dr. Kaye Remington, PGCS, Canberra, Australia, August 14, 2018 Kaye goes on to say - The problem comes first, then information and knowledge is developed to reveal the attributes of... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Here's some quotes from Damon Hancock, Samsung Australia, speaking about the challenge of big infrastructure at PGCS 2018 Pick your partner well. Bad partners bring bad fortune. Some uncomfortable conversations today will save much pain later. Context drives behaviour. Inadequate... Read more →

Thought of the Day

The notion that Agile Development can be successful without Project Planning and Controls is only true when the project is de minimis. A de minimis project, means any variance in the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the deliverables has... Read more →

Thought for the Day - Estimates Are Mandatory in Presence of Uncertainty

No Estimates advocates claim you can manage a software development effort without estimating the cost, schedule or technical performance needed to show up with the needed capabilities, for the needed cost at the needed time to deliver the needed value... Read more →

How Projects Go Bad - No Matter the Domain, Method, or Tool

Project failure is not only common, it's predictable. The root causes of Project Failure are well documented and corrective and preventive actions are also well known. Let's start with the four primary root causes of project failure. ‡ Unrealistic Performance... Read more →

Summary of No Estimates Posts

After a contentious exchange on twitter about a contentious topic of managing complex adaptive systems - the other side of the exchange doesn't actually MANAGE Complex Systems - he just talks about non-actionable outcomes aspect of his theory of how... Read more →

Quote of the Day

That is not only not right; it is not even wrong Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig; es ist nicht einmal falsch! Wolfgang Pauli Read more →

#NoEstimates is Open Loop Control

Here's a summary of why Project Management, Risk Management, Estimating, Root Cause Analysis and other project management processes are a Closed Loop Control System Let's start with what is Closed Loop Control To successfully complete a project that meets established... Read more →

Quote of the Day

When logic fails, the argument turns to slander - Socrates Read more →

Quote of the Day

The probable is what usually happens. —Aristotle It is a truth very certain that when it is not in our power to determine. what is true we ought to follow what is most probable —Descartes, “Discourse on Method” It is... Read more →

Quote of the Day

We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new... Read more →

Another Fallacy of the Week - #NoEstimates

You can make an estimate - one that is better than chance would produce - of how many children have been born into a Dutch or Danish family by counting the storks' nests on the roof of their house. In... Read more →

Quote of the Day

If the facts (evidence) are against you, argue the law (principle). If the law (principle) is against you, argue the facts (evidence). If the law (principle) and the facts (evidence) are against you, pound the table and yell like hell... Read more →

Quote of the Day

A Dull Knife is Far More Dangerous Than a Sharp One Read more →

What Do We Mean by Risk and Uncertainty?

Risk and Uncertainty are an integral part of all decision-making processes for non-trivial work. The decision-making process involves a set of actions and outcomes, each of which associated with them a probability or a statistical process. All risk comes from... Read more →

The Conscious Competence Learning Model

The Conscious Competence Learning Model has four stages. Each learner must pass through each stage to progress from incompetence to competence. This model is useful in understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect. The four stages of competence are: [1] Unconscious incompetence. The... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The most unsuccessful three years in the education of cost estimators appears to be fifth-grade arithmetic - Norman R. Augustine, Law VIII Read more →

Book of the Month

The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters, Tom Nichols. From the dust jacket - Thanks to technological advances and increasing levels of education we have access to more information than ever before. Yet rather... Read more →

Quote of the Day

“The winning general is the one who can best act on imperfect information and half-formed theories.” – Napoleon Bonaparte All decisions in the presence of uncertainty require making estimates of the reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create risk. Knowing the... Read more →