Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

An individual who is observed to be inconstant to his plans, or perhaps to carry on his affairs without any plan at all, is marked at once. By all prudent people, as a speedy victim to his own unsteadiness and... Read more →

Quote of the Day

It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan All we do, everything we encounter, all actions taken on any project ever executes, we encounter... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Worked a $20B Manned Space Flight program a few years ago, when called in to help with getting back on schedule. The Finance Manager (CFO of the Program) opened the kickoff meeting with ... What's the difference between our program... Read more →

Quote of the Day

In the space of two days, I had evolved two plans, wholly distinct, both of which were equally feasible. The point I am trying to bring out is that one does not plan and then try to make circumstances fit... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Agile is about inspecting and adapting, but most of the things that will get in our way during Transformation are actually knowable up front. And those real, knowable constraints are often what make organizational change difficult. - Mike Cottmeyer Agile... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Probabilities direct the conduct of the wise man. Cicero, De Natura Deorum, Book 1, chap. 5, sec. 12 When you hear that you can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty WITHOUT estimating the impact of that decision, the Greeks... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Solum certum nihil esse certi The only certainty is uncertainty Pliny the Elder, Historia Naturalis, Bk ii, 7 All projects operate in the presence of risk which is created by uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in two forms. Reducible (Epistemic) and Irreducible... Read more →

The False Logic of No Estimates

There are a lot of logical fallacies in today's software development world. Good logic it seems is hard to come by. Here's two simple known-to-work logic principles Modus ponens - If A is true, then B is true. When A... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin When claims are made in the absence of the knowledge of principles and instead only from personal anecdotes in the absence of principles and knowledge, Darwin’s quote becomes applicable.... Read more →

Word of the Day

Authoritative Reference When writing or speaking about anything (beyond norma chit chat or uninformed opinion) authoritative reference citations are essential. The references give the reader confidence that you have done your homework in preparing your work, they show how your... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Comment is free, but facts are sacred. -- C.P. Scott, editor of the Manchester Guardian, 1921 When you hear claims by anyone about any topic, ask for the data to support that claim. If it's an anecdote, that data is... Read more →

Quote of the Day

All risk comes from uncertainty, reducible, and irreducible. Making any credible decision in the presence of uncertainty requires making an estimate of the probability of success of that decision on the project Risk Management is Project Management for Adults -... Read more →

Word of the Day

Willful Ignorance Noun (uncountable)(idiomatic, law) A decision in bad faith to avoid, becoming informed about something so as to having to make undesirable decisions that such information might prompt Read more →

Quote of the Day - Ignoring Reality Doesn't Make It Go Away

We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of reality - Ayn Rand There are several realities in our complex software-intensive system of systems All risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainties come in two forms that can be handled... Read more →

Quote of the Day

There is nothing so stupid as the educated man if you get him off the thing he was educated in - Will Rogers We all have experienced such a person. This brings me back to another quote from a retired... Read more →

Aleatory Uncertainty Versus Epistemic Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Making - The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

It is a common mistake, performed by many in the No Estimates community, to fail to understand that all risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in only two forms: Epistemic uncertainty - is the lack of knowledge or information in... Read more →

Quote of the Day

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid - Benjamin Franklin Read more →

Quote of the Day

There's an old legal aphorism that goes, If you have the Facts on your side, Pound the Facts. If you have the Law on your side, Pound the Law (or Principles). If you have neither Facts nor Law (or Principles)... Read more →

Ignorance Versus "Willful Ignorance"

In a recent exchange on Twitter, I was called Ignorant for failing to understand a concept held by a self-proclaimed thought leader on the topic. Here in the US When you call someone ignorant, it's usually during, as some have... Read more →

Quote of the Day

At what level of risk are you willing to NOT know the probability of completing on or before a date, at or below a cost, with the needed capabilities? Without estimates, in the presence of uncertainty, there can be no... Read more →