Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

Evoking a Root Cause as the reason for failure is a failure of leadership Leadership means seeing what is coming, taking preventive and/or corrective actions through the application of Risk Management, which includes pre-mortems for what could possibly go wrong.... Read more →

Aleatory Uncertainty Versus Epistemic Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Making - The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

It is a common mistake, performed by many in the No Estimates community, to fail to understand that all risk comes from uncertainty. Uncertainty comes in only two forms: Epistemic uncertainty - is the lack of knowledge or information in... Read more →

Retrospective Coherence - What Does That Mean?

Why is the past easier to predict than the future? Retrospective Coherence is looking back in time and creating a coherent narrative around what happened. The accuracy of this narrative is suspect because the narrative can only be based on... Read more →

Thought of the Day

Science is in the process and tools Art is in the people and their relationships Management Systems without tools provide partial solutions. Success means delivering what those paying for the project set out to accomplish. In the presence of uncertainty,... Read more →

Quote of the Day - Managing Projects Like a Sailor

We Can Control the Ship and Sails, But Not The Wind and Waves All project work operates in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty creates risk to the success of the project. Uncertainty comes in only two forms: Epistemic uncertainty, which... Read more →

Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister

Risk management deals with issues of uncertainty. Risk Management aims to reduce uncertainty by envisioning possible scenarios and making forecasts (estimates of future outcomes based on data or past performance) on the basis of what it is considered probable within... Read more →

A Quick Summary of Risk Management

There's a conversation (of sorts) on Linked-In about Risk Management. Several topics are going on in parallel For risks, created by reducible uncertainty, direct corrective or preventive actions can be taken to reduce the probability that the risk will occur... Read more →

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success (A 5 Part Series)

This series of articles provides answers to the questions asked by the five (5) immutable principles of any successful project. Answering these questions is the role of the project management team. What Does DONE Look Like? How Do We Get... Read more →

Quote of the Day

“The winning general is the one who can best act on imperfect information and half-formed theories.” – Napoleon Bonaparte All decisions in the presence of uncertainty require making estimates of the reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create risk. Knowing the... Read more →

Quote of the Day

The Mastery of Risk distinguishes modern times from the past: By understanding and measuring risks and their consequences, modern humans no longer perceive the further as a whim of the Gods and thereby have been empowered to transform their world... Read more →

Increasing the Probability of Project Success (PoPS)

All project work, agile or traditional, operates in the presence of uncertainty. There are four fundamental root causes of Project or Program Failure, and their drivers that are addressed by Risk Management and the Estimating processes that go with them.... Read more →

Lessons Learned from the Columbia Disaster (Update)

This week I taught a 4-day course on Progressive Concepts in Program Management at the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. One of the workshops used the NASA Columbia accident as an example (NASA report calls these things mishaps). This... Read more →

You Can Not "Control" Projects

The #NoEstimates are right you can not Control projects. All projects, no matter the domain, processes, or technology, operate in the presence of uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory). The only thing that can take place is to Manage... Read more →

Quote of the Day

Just exactly what is it we manage on projects if not risks? Project management IS risk management. The risk-aware manager can show you a substantial list of causal risks. He/she can tell you the likely cost in time or money... Read more →

The Profession of Risk Management and it's Value to Project Success

I've had an engagement on social media recently, where it was blatantly clear there is a low level of understanding of how managing in the presence of uncertainty is sorely missing in the agile development community, where the focus is... Read more →

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to manage the risk encountered on a software-intensive system of systems (SISoS) using traditional and agile development methods. Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on... Read more →

Agile Development and Safety Critical Software

I grew up writing software for embedded real-time control system software world, out of graduate school working on Radar Systems, Flight Systems, Safety Systems, and Process Control Systems. I moved to enterprise business systems, then to product development, then to... Read more →

Podcast Interview

On a recent flight, I met Rory Rowland. Rory is in the Missouri House of Representative, a former CEO of a Credit Union, and a consultant and author. We started talking as well traveled travelers do, sharing backgrounds and current... Read more →

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

This collection of presentations, briefings, journal and conference papers, essays, and book content has been used to increase the Probability of Project Success (PoPS) written and applied over my career in the software-intensive system of systems and other business and... Read more →

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured, we can... Read more →