Herding Cats

Quote of the Day

Cause and effect, means and ends, seed and fruit, cannot be severed; for the effect already blooms in the cause, the end preexists in the means, the fruit in the seed. Ralph Waldo Emerson, 19th-century transcendental philosopher from Selected Writings... Read more →

Retrospective Coherence - What Does That Mean?

Why is the past easier to predict than the future? Retrospective Coherence is looking back in time and creating a coherent narrative around what happened. The accuracy of this narrative is suspect because the narrative can only be based on... Read more →

Four Root Causes of Project Failure

In a previous blog, Root Causes of Project Failure, there were four root causes from research at the Institute for Defense Analyses. In that Blog there were measures missing. Here's the details of those measures, defined in the Technical Measurement... Read more →

Compendium of Resources

Materials used to increase the probability of project success in the presence of uncertainty, with Capabilities needed for a defined cost on a defined date. Briefings, Papers, and Presentations are publications developed for clients, journals, books, and book chapters, and... Read more →

A Compendium of Root Cause Analysis Resources

When mistakes occur, blame the process, not people. Root Cause Analysis is the means to fix the cause, rather than treat the symptom. • What allowed the mistake to happen? • What will prevent mistakes from occurring in the future?... Read more →

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to manage the risk encountered on a software-intensive system of systems (SISoS) using traditional and agile development methods. Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on... Read more →

Podcast Interview

On a recent flight, I met Rory Rowland. Rory is in the Missouri House of Representative, a former CEO of a Credit Union, and a consultant and author. We started talking as well traveled travelers do, sharing backgrounds and current... Read more →

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for... Read more →

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

This collection of presentations, briefings, journal and conference papers, essays, and book content has been used to increase the Probability of Project Success (PoPS) written and applied over my career in the software-intensive system of systems and other business and... Read more →

Book of the Month

We generally understand a root cause as being the underlying cause of why a particular issue happens. One thing to understand about root cause analysis is it attempts to reveal the hidden causes and effects behind a particular event. In... Read more →

Quote of the Day

We are reminded by the work of Dr. W. E. Deming, the father of modern quality management, in which he demonstrated that the vast majority of quality problems are rooted in processes—ignored, flawed, or misunderstood by the worker, not in... Read more →

Cost and Value Management for Software Development

There's a popular notion going around the agile community that says ... we focus on Value and don't need to worry about Cost. This, of course, is a violation of the principles of Managerial Finance and Microeconomics of software development... Read more →

Managing in the Presence of Risk

Information technology project risk often comes from non-technical aspects of the initiative. Assessing the impact of technology on people, management systems and other initiatives is essential to assure project success. "We automate problems" This department slogan was posted on an... Read more →

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

A previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate, mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating... Read more →

Without a Root Cause Analysis, No Corrective or Preventive Action is Credible - Part 1

When you hear project failure statistics, and no Root Cause for those numbers, there is no hope that any suggested corrections can be credible. As well when you hear those statistics, many times those numbers have no credibility themselves to... Read more →

Connecting "What" with "How" - and the Failure to Understand the Principles of Systems Engineering and Systems Management

It's been said by an agile voice that ... Progress and value delivery are not the same thing. In the end, of course, value (to someone) is important. And in the standard-for-today structure of programming for money, we divide what... Read more →

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

The Cone of Uncertainty is a useful approach to defining the expected range of uncertainty at specific stages in a project. The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a... Read more →

What Is Risk?

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. Uncertainty is a state or condition that involves a deficiency of information and leads to inadequate or incomplete knowledge of understanding. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge... Read more →

Quote of the Day

An inescapable fact is that the causation of all serious harm includes multiple missed opportunities for multiple ordinary people, organizations, and groups to have prevented the harm entirely or the have greatly reduced it by doing ordinary things ordinarily well.... Read more →

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. This assessment comes from research at the Institute for Defense Analyses (www.ida.org), where I sometimes work as... Read more →